The EU Is Taking on Big Tech. It May Be Outmatched | Did Kim Jong-un Really Seek to Denuclearize? | Why Modi Underperformed, and more

But ECOWAS’s task in dealing with military coups was made much harder by its woeful inaction in the face of constitutional coups, which pervaded the region in the preceding decades. This inertia has had an enormous impact on civilians in West Africa. Amid decades of flawed elections that have brought little more than bloodshed and quasi-authoritarian rule, confidence that democracy will enable populations to achieve change has diminished, almost by default creating an attraction to military rule.

Why Modi Underperformed  (Ravi Agrawal, Foreign Policy)
From pundits to polls, there was a wide expectation this year that Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi would not just win a rare third consecutive term but would secure an even bigger parliamentary majority than he had before. As it emerged on Tuesday, India’s voters had other ideas. Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) won the most seats—more than the entire opposition alliance combined—but will need the help of coalition allies to form a government. Modi has never needed to share power before, and it’s anyone’s guess as to how he will adapt to the vulnerabilities of coalition politics.
Milan Vaishnav: If we rewind the clock to January and February of this year, before voting began, every pre-election survey pointed in one direction. And that was an overwhelming majority for the BJP, plus seats for the BJP’s allies known as the NDA. Exit polls reconfirmed that as recently as June 1. But that’s not what we saw. We saw a BJP that fell short of a governing majority. It will only be in power thanks to the help and assistance of its coalition partners.
The overarching message or takeaway for me was that it really wasn’t clear what this election was about. It’s such an obvious question to ask, but I have no answer for it. And this really hurt the BJP. There was no defining economic, national security, emotive issue. And what ended up happening, in broad strokes, was more of a classic state-by-state contest where local factors, incumbency, caste equations, party dynamics, alliances mattered much more. The BJP is on much weaker ground there. They have been the incumbent for 10 years. They have a motley group of opposition parties which have banded together with the explicit purpose of keeping the BJP out of power. There was some upset within the BJP’s ranks. They replaced over 100 of their sitting MPs, bringing in defectors and turncoats from other parties. This is important because the BJP is a rank-and-file, cadre-based party, so they don’t necessarily take very kindly to people coming from the outside. And so they really struggled to do something that we think of as part of the BJP’s strength, which is crafting a narrative.
But it was really the opposition, on the campaign trail, which was very disciplined in its messaging, hitting the government hard on the state of the economy, inequality, social injustice. And unlike opposition campaigns of the past, they stayed on message. They were nimble and they were very clever. It was the first time in a while when you saw opposition social media ads and you laughed out loud because of how cutting they were.

The EU Is Taking on Big Tech. It May Be Outmatched  (Luca Zorloni, Wired)
The latest in a series of duels announced by the European Commission is with Bing, Microsoft’s search engine. Brussels suspects that the giant based in Redmond, Washington, has failed to properly moderate content produced by the generative AI systems on Bing, Copilot, and Image Creator, and that as a result, it may have violated the Digital Services Act (DSA), one of Europe’s latest digital regulations.
On May 17, the EU summit requested company documents to understand how Microsoft handled the spread of hallucinations (inaccurate or nonsensical answers produced by AI), deepfakes, and attempts to improperly influence the upcoming European Parliament elections. At the beginning of June, voters in the 27 states of the European Union will choose their representatives to the European Parliament, in a campaign over which looms the ominous shadow of technology with its potential to manipulate the outcome. The commission has given Microsoft until May 27 to respond, only days before voters go to the polls. If there is a need to correct course, it may likely be too late.

Terrorist Threat Assessment: Boko Haram and ISWAP in Nigeria  (Mahmut Cengiz, HSToday)
In recent years, terrorism has become a significant challenge across Africa, with Nigeria being a major focal point due to the activities of groups like Boko Haram and ISWAP (Islamic State West Africa Province). Nigeria faces various types of terrorism, ranging from economic-driven conflicts in the Niger Delta to separatist movements in Biafra. Recently, the Zamfara region has witnessed a surge in violent attacks between Hausa farmers and Fulani herders, posing a significant threat to the country. While Al Qaeda has sought to establish a presence in the region in the past, its affiliate, Ansaru, remains relatively weak. Boko Haram’s violence has elevated Nigeria to one of the top countries with the highest number of terrorist attacks. However, its dominance is now being challenged by ISWAP. This article, using the Global Terrorism and Trends Analysis Center (GTTAC) Records of Incidents Database (GRID) from January 2018 to October 2023, analyzes the latest trends in the region and examines the attacks perpetrated by ISWAP and Boko Haram.
The African continent is grappling with a notable increase in terrorist activities, marked by the presence of various ethnonationalist and jihadist groups. These groups, driven by diverse motivations ranging from ethnic grievances to radical ideologies, pose significant security challenges across the region. In addition to indigenous factions, regional affiliates of global terrorist organizations such as ISIS and Al Qaeda are exploiting local vulnerabilities and emerging opportunities to expand their influence. Ethnonationalist groups often emerge from ethnic tensions and grievances, seeking autonomy or independence for specific ethnic communities. These groups in Sudan, Mali, the Democratic Republic of Congo, Ethiopia, the Central African Republic, and Nigeria resort to violence as a means to achieve their political objectives, targeting government institutions, security forces, and rival ethnic groups.

Joe Biden Is Walking Down the Path to a Nuclear War with Russia  (Daniel L. Davis, National Interest)
There is nothing for the United States to gain and a great deal to lose by expanding the allowed target list of our weapons and ammunition to Ukraine. Risking nuclear escalation is foolish to the highest degree. Biden’s permission last week should be rescinded immediately before any damage is done.

Did Kim Jong-un Really Seek to Denuclearize?  (Bruce W. Bennett, National Interest)
Did North Korean leader Kim Jong-un really seek to denuclearize? Former South Korean President Moon Jae-in claims in his recent memoir that Kim was sincere in promising to denuclearize in 2018, and Moon believed him. Moon sees the failure to pursue Kim’s willingness as a major lost opportunity. Can we believe such a claim?