SPACE SECURITYA Nuclear Sword of Damocles in Orbit
Russia is developing a nuclear-weapons-based anti-satellite (ASAT) capability, and the Western democracies must work together to prevent Moscow from deploying such a weapon. That will demand new and innovative thinking on space domain awareness and space control by the US and its allies. A continued drift forward through a strategy of hope that Russia will honor its obligations under space law even as the West is under direct threat from Moscow is a strategy for failure.
vRussia is developing a nuclear-weapons-based anti-satellite (ASAT) capability, and the Western democracies must work together to prevent Moscow from deploying such a weapon. This will be an immediate and important challenge, testing the next US administration and its ability to work with allies to ensure stability and security in space.
Were a deployment of a nuclear ASAT to go ahead, Russia would deliberately violate the 1967 Outer Space Treaty, which is a key foundation of international space law. Militarily, a nuclear weapon in orbit would indiscriminately threaten a vast number of satellites and create an effective nuclear sword of Damocles threatening the national security of many states, especially given the growing dependency of Western democracies on the space domain for their national security and economic prosperity.
The news that Russia is developing a nuclear-weapons-based ASAT capability broke mid-February in a leak from the chairman of the US House Permanent Select Committee on Intelligence, Representative Mike Turner. The Biden administration eventually responded, noting that the nature of the weapon under development by Russia suggested that ‘it would be space based. And it would be a violation of the Outer Space Treaty to which more than 130 countries have signed up to, including Russia.’ That reinforces the perception that Russia is indeed developing a capability to place nuclear weapons in orbit around the Earth in direct violation of the treaty.
Article IV of the treaty states that ‘States Parties to the Treaty undertake not to place in orbit around the earth any objects carrying nuclear weapons or any other kinds of weapons of mass destruction, install such weapons on celestial bodies, or station such weapons in outer space in any other manner.’
The 1967 Outer Space Treaty is considered the foundation of modern international space law. A deliberate Russian violation of Article IV would fatally undermine the entire treaty, reversing decades of progress towards avoiding an uncontrolled arms race in space.
