WORLD ROUNDUPWhat Trump-Vance Means for Ukraine | Paul Kagame Isn’t Going Anywhere | China’s Presence in Latin America Has Expanded Dramatically, and more

Published 17 July 2024

·  How Can Europe Reduce Its Military Dependency on the United States?
With Washington looking toward China, and the possibility of another Trump presidency, Europe should do more for its own defense. Here are four key areas to watch

·  What Trump-Vance Means for Ukraine
Victory for the GOP ticket would spell disaster for Europe

·  How the West Misunderstood Moscow in Ukraine
Ten years ago, Russia’s first invasion failed to wake up a bamboozled West. The reasons are still relevant today

·  Paul Kagame Isn’t Going Anywhere
Rwanda’s forever president wins again in a mostly uncontested election

How Can Europe Reduce Its Military Dependency on the United States?  (Steven Erlanger, New York Times)
Even the European members of NATO say that they must do more to defend themselves as the war in Ukraine grinds on and the United States shifts its priorities to Asia and a rising China.
The possibility that former President Donald J. Trump will return to the White House heightens the concern, given his repeated threat to withdraw collective defense from countries that don’t pay their way in the alliance.
In fact, European member states have made considerable progress in the last few years to restore more credibility to deterrence against Russia. But they began from a low base, having cut military spending sharply after the collapse of the Soviet Union and reacting with complacency to Russia’s annexation of Crimea in 2014.
There is a lot more that the Europeans should do to become less dependent on the United States, NATO officials and analysts said this week during the alliance summit in Washington. That includes committing more money to defense, building up arms manufacturing and coordinating the purchase of weapons systems that could replace those now provided solely by the Americans.

What Trump-Vance Means for Ukraine  (Aaron Friedberg and Gabriel Schoenfeld, The Bulwark)
Donald Trump’s Selection of Senator J.D. Vance as a running mate is awful news for Ukraine. Even without Vance on the ticket, Trump has been no friend of the embattled democracy. His policy is predicated on animus toward its elected leaders, which seems to be rooted in his affinity for Russian dictator Vladimir Putin and on lingering resentment over his own failed attempt to coerce the Ukrainian government into providing him with “dirt” on Joe Biden, an escapade that resulted in his first impeachment. His policy is also linked to his longstanding skepticism of NATO and his general disdain for international alliances. What is that policy? Nothing more than the blunt use of American coercive leverage—the threat to terminate economic and military aid—to force Kyiv to make concessions to Moscow. Trump has repeatedly said that he will end the war in one day, somehow even before he assumes office. As absurd as this is, it showcases his posture. (Cont.)