U.K. Police Braced for Further Disorder | Hope Alongside Further Tensions in the Indo-Pacific, and more

attacks on Red Sea shipping, launched increasingly deadly drone attacks toward Israel, and detained more than fifty Yemenis working with foreign organizations. These were the immediate reactions to a recent financial crisis precipitated by the closure of the Central Bank in Sana’a, which has placed additional obstacles to currency transfers and civil servant salaries in Houthi-held territory in northern Yemen. The liquidity of the bifurcated Central Bank, with its other branch in Aden, had been maintained by Saudi financing since the onset of the conflict in 2015, affording the kingdom a degree of leverage over the Sana’a-based Houthi government. Irregular payments to public sector salaries in Sana’a, a consequence of periodic economic sanctions and continued restrictions, have long contributed to the decline of healthcare, sanitation, and other services across the country.
The decision to escalate the Red Sea crisis might be an act of revenge against the United States and Saudi Arabia for targeting Houthi military and financial capabilities. However, the Houthis might instead be perceiving the closure of the Sana’a Central Bank as Saudi Arabia abandoning the last form of leverage over the Houthi territory. After initially hedging their bets, the Houthis appear to have shifted almost entirely toward the Iranian camp, assuming that Iran and its allies can guarantee future state finances. Rather than pursue reconciliation with the internationally recognized government in Aden, the Houthi leadership has sought to isolate itself from the region further.

Water Wars: Glimmers of Hope Alongside Further Tensions in the Indo-Pacific  (Aaron Baum Ania Zolyniak Nikhita Salgame, Lawfare)
While the recent film “Civil War” reflected in generic terms American anxieties about the risk of heightened political violence, a trailer released in late July for the upcoming Taiwanese TV series “Zero Day” gave even more explicit expression to Taiwanese concerns about Chinese aggression. The trailer depicts tactics by Beijing explored in mock exercises that Taiwan and others have conducted to prepare for potential aggression—including a blockade of the island and cyberattacks. Taiwan’s Ministry of Culture provided funding for the project, and Taiwan’s diplomatic posts around the world published articles highlighting the trailer. One of the directors was quoted as saying: “[O]ur homeland is the most likely next flashpoint” after the war in Ukraine.
Earlier in July, geopolitical analysts made similar connections between Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and China’s increasing assertiveness in the Taiwan Strait in the context of Australia, Japan, New Zealand, and South Korea’s attendance at the NATO summit in Washington. Meanwhile, the Philippines continued its own diplomatic efforts in the region.