CHINA WATCHChina’s High Stakes and Deepfakes in the Philippines
A covert social media campaign operated by the Chinese government appears to be spreading a deepfake video seeking to undermine support for Philippines President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. China is conducting the campaign amid a high-stakes standoff with the Philippines over claims in the South China Sea.
A covert social media campaign operated by the Chinese government appears to be spreading a deepfake video seeking to undermine support for Philippines President Ferdinand Marcos Jr, according to new research conducted by ASPI. China is conducting the campaign amid a high-stakes standoff with the Philippines over claims in the South China Sea.
Hours before Marcos gave a state-of-the-nation Address on 22 July 2024, a video of him appearing to take illicit drugs was circulated by supporters of the previous president, Rodrigo Duterte. The video was a deepfake and soon debunked by Philippine authorities, but it was shared quickly across social media and fuelled anti-Marcos sentiment among hardline Duterte supporters.
ASPI has identified a network of coordinated inauthentic accounts across X and YouTube amplifying the video. We assess the accounts as very likely linked to the Chinese government. In recent months, Marcos has defied the Chinese government’s increasingly aggressive attempts to block Philippine Coast Guard resupply missions to BRP Sierra Madre, an old ship that is grounded near the disputed Second Thomas Shoal and accommodates a Philippine garrison. Duterte, who held office from 2016 to 2022, had a more conciliatory relationship with Beijing, and in April his former presidential spokesperson, Harry Roque, claimed that Duterte had struck at a ‘secret’ gentlemen’s agreement with Chinese President Xi Jinping to keep the status quo in the disputed waters, including a pledge by Manila not to repair Sierra Madre.
The deepfake video marks the latest salvo in a persistent online smear campaign targeting Marcos and his policies this year. A deepfake audio portraying him as confrontational was, according to the president’s office, disseminated by a foreign actor. Duterte has alleged he is a drug addict. When he was in office, Duterte conducted a highly popular war on drugs in which thousands of suspected drug users and other criminals were killed extrajudicially, so illegal drug use is a galvanizing issue among his supporters.
The Chinese Communist Party has previously deployed covert social media campaigns to interfere in Philippine politics, but this new campaign promotes the dissemination of content created by domestic actors, demonstrating a novel sophistication and insight into the Philippines’ information environment.
In the second half of this report, we highlight links between the CCP, criminal online gambling syndicates and the Filipino groups that are sharing the deepfake video. This further reveals the extent of the CCP’s foreign malign influence and interference across Southeast Asia.
