NUCLEAR WEAPONSA New U.S. Russia, China Nuclear Arms Race Spells Danger
Unlike in the Cold War, the United States faces the prospect in the next decade of two peer nuclear adversaries, which will together have twice as many strategic nuclear weapons as it does. While extended nuclear assurance and persuasion have been important factors in the US for a long time, there does not appear to be any widely accepted methodology for reaching a decision on how many weapons are needed for these purposes.
Unlike in the Cold War, the United States faces the prospect in the next decade of two peer nuclear adversaries, which will together have twice as many strategic nuclear weapons as it does. According to a senior American official visiting Australia last month, by 2034 China will have as many strategic nuclear weapons as the US does today. So, a decade from now America may be outnumbered by Russia and China combined having over 3,000 strategic nuclear warheads to America’s 1500.
Under the terms of the 2018 New START Treaty, Russia and America are each allowed 1550 strategic nuclear warheads and 700 deployed intercontinental ballistic missiles, submarine-launched ballistic missiles and heavy nuclear bombers. This treaty expires on 5 February 2026. But Russia last year ‘suspended’ its treaty commitments—though it claims it will abide by the numerical limit of 1550 deployed nuclear warheads.
The United States and Russia have successfully negotiated strategic nuclear arms reduction talks from the early 1970s until now. At the height of the Cold War, the US nuclear arsenal numbered more than 32,000 weapons and the Soviet arsenal more than 45,000. The two have also withdrawn about 14,000 tactical nuclear weapons from forward deployments in places such as Europe. But the question now arises whether that era of careful, considered—and verifiable—cuts to strategic nuclear capabilities is over.
The Russians and the Americans are no longer talking at the political level about these vital issues, although expert talks do continue. And several previous bilateral arms control treaties have been cancelled, including the Antiballistic Missile Treaty, the Theatre Nuclear Forces in Europe Treaty, the Open Skies Agreement, the Conventional Forces in Europe Agreement and others.
On 7 June, according to Pranay Vaddi—the special assistant to the president for arms control, disarmament and non-proliferation at the National Security Council—Russia, China and North Korea ‘are all expanding and diversifying their nuclear arsenals at a breakneck speed and showing no interest in arms control.’ Vaddi observed that the last decade has revealed serious cracks in the international pillars of reducing nuclear dangers, the salience of nuclear weapons, and limiting strategic arsenals of the largest nuclear powers.
