Under Both Trump and Biden-Harris, U.S. Oil and Gas Production Surged to Record Highs, Despite Very Different Energy Goals

The Biden-Harris administration focused on clean energy and climate change. It issued several regulations targeting fossil fuels, including efforts to reduce methane leaks from natural gas pipelines and increasing the royalties that companies pay for production on federal lands. In 2021, it issued a moratorium on new federal leases for oil and gas, but that was blocked by a federal judge.

However, the Biden-Harris administration also gave the go-ahead for the nation’s largest oil drilling operation, ConocoPhillips’ vast Willow project in Alaska. And the Inflation Reduction Act of 2022, considered the administration’s signature climate law, included additional oil and gas leasing and incentives to capture carbon dioxide for use in enhanced oil recovery.

Choices in One Administration Affect the Next
When land is leased for drilling, it takes some years for production to begin. So, the increased oil and gas production during the Biden administration is to some extent a result of leases issued during the Trump administration. Trump auctioned off the leases; the Biden administration signed the permits.

In many cases, presidents have little discretion and are essentially required to approve when permits meet the legal requirements.

Global events can also have large effects on production.

The COVID-19 pandemic reduced U.S. oil demand as activity slowed worldwide in 2020.

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022 led to greater energy demand from Europe. Natural gas has to be liquefied to ship it overseas, however, and the U.S. has limited export capacity. To send more supply to Europe, the U.S. had to reroute natural gas exports intended for other countries.

The Biden-Harris administration paused approvals for additional liquefied natural gas terminals in 2024, but a federal judge blocked the move.

What Caused Oil Production to Surge?
Drilling technology has been an important driver of the industry’s success.

U.S. oil production had reached a peak in 1970 and went into a slow decline that lasted more than three decades. It was widely believed that the U.S. had pumped its best reservoirs and that the country would be inexorably dependent on foreign oil.

Then, in the early 2000s, innovations in hydraulic fracturing and horizontal drilling changed everything. These techniques gave drillers access to previously hard-to-reach fossil fuels and opened up opportunities for oil and gas drilling at lower cost and in greater quantities. Since around 2009, U.S. oil production has surged.

Natural gas followed a similar trajectory. U.S. natural gas production had peaked in 1972 and leveled off. But with fracking, natural gas production has risen since around 2005. Trump supports fracking. Harris opposed fracking in the past, but she told CNN in August 2024 that she won’t ban it.

What About Coal?
U.S. coal production is a different story. It peaked in 2008 and has been going down sharply since then.

Coal is more susceptible to government actions than oil and gas – 40% of it is produced on federal land, compared with 24% for oil and 11% for natural gas. And it has seen federal policy swings.

For example, in 2016, then-President Barack Obama banned new coal-mining leases in the Powder River Basin in Montana and Wyoming, where the majority of coal production on federal land takes place. The Trump administration lifted that freeze a year later, but a court ordered a pause of Trump’s move. The ban was eventually revoked by a court during the Biden administration. Then the Biden administration again ended new leases in the Powder River Basin.

But coal’s decline was also about economics. As natural gas became cheaper, it increasingly replaced coal in U.S. electricity production.

The decrease in coal production is the main reason U.S. carbon dioxide emissions have been falling even as fossil fuel production rises. Rising renewable energy production and increasing efficiency in some technologies have also helped cut emissions.

The Bottom Line
Trump can take credit for allowing more leases for oil and gas drilling. The Biden-Harris administration, while it issued permits for oil and gas drilling and production increased on its watch, established several rules to limit greenhouse gas emissions from fossil fuels.

Presidents’ actions can matter for the industry’s future, but the major factors in U.S. oil and gas production so far have been increased production efficiency, increased global demand and the lower cost of natural gas compared with coal.

Valerie Thomas is Professor of Industrial Engineering, Georgia Institute of Technology. This article is published courtesy of The Conversation.