COASTAL CHALLENGESThe Gulf Coast Is Sinking, Making Hurricanes Like Francine Even More Dangerous
Hurricane Francine hits low-lying Louisiana. Subsidence could make the storm surge worse: Because so much of southern Louisiana sits at or below sea level, the surge could race inland unimpeded.
Hurricane Francine barreled into southern Louisiana on Wednesday as a Category 2 storm, packing 100 mph winds and sending a surge of water into coastal communities. Because so much of southern Louisiana sits at or below sea level, the surge could race inland unimpeded. The last hurricane to hit the state was Ida in 2021, which unleashed a catastrophic storm surge and caused $75 billion in damages and killed 55 people.
“Storm surge is really a nasty, nasty thing,” said Brian McNoldy, a hurricane researcher at the University of Miami. “It’s hurricane winds essentially bulldozing the ocean onto land. It doesn’t have anywhere else to go.”
The Gulf Coast’s storm surge problem will only get worse from here, scientists warn, because of colliding phenomena. Climate change is supercharging hurricanes as well as raising sea levels, and the coastline along Louisiana and Texas is sinking in some places, a process known as subsidence.
With every little bit of elevation lost, sea level rise and storm surges grow more severe, yet forecasts have long neglected subsidence because researchers lacked the data. That could mean some parts of the Gulf Coast are underestimating the potential damage. Louisiana’s coastal parishes already have lost more than 2,000 square miles of land between 1932 to 2016 to sea level rise and subsidence. The state’s wetlands act as a natural buffer against storm surges, but the ecosystems could be nearing collapse.
Warmer waters in the Gulf of Mexico have helped turn Francine into a fearsome cyclone. A hurricane is like an atmospheric engine. Its fuel is warm ocean water, which evaporates and sends energy into the sky. If the wind conditions are right, the storm will spin up and march across the sea. And if the water in its path is extra warm, the fuel is extra potent, allowing a hurricane to intensify into a monster. “They can start to grow very rapidly under very warm sea surface temperatures,” said Daniel Gilford, who studies hurricanes at Climate Central, a nonprofit research organization. “Almost like when your foot hits the accelerator and that fuel pours into your engine to ignite.”
The Gulf Coast is naturally warm because it heated up over the summer. But according to an analysis by Climate Central, as Francine formed, it was feeding on high ocean temperatures made at least 200 times more likely by climate change.
