EXTREMISMOnline Signals of Extremist Mobilization

By Olivia Brown, Laura G. E. Smith, Brit Davidson, and Adam Joinson

This study underscores that understanding and predicting extremist mobilization requires focusing on specific behavioral indicators such as talk of violence and logistics.

Taken from the paper:

Abstract
Psychological theories of mobilization tend to focus on explaining people’s motivations for action, rather than mobilization (“activation”) processes. To investigate the online behaviors associated with mobilization, we compared the online communications data of 26 people who subsequently mobilized to right-wing extremist action and 48 people who held similar extremist views but did not mobilize (N = 119,473 social media posts).

In a three-part analysis, involving content analysis (Part 1), topic modeling (Part 2), and machine learning (Part 3), we showed that communicating ideological or hateful content was not related to mobilization, but rather mobilization was positively related to talking about violent action, operational planning, and logistics.

Our findings imply that to explain mobilization to extremist action, rather than the motivations for action, theories of collective action should extend beyond how individuals express grievances and anger, to how they equip themselves with the “know-how” and capability to act.

Conclusion
In conclusion, we suggest that understanding extremist mobilization and the initiation of action requires different theorizing than radicalization (or support for extremist collective action)—as they involve different processes (or at least different phases of a process). Our findings suggest that people who are intent on mobilizing to extremist action are likely to post content about violent actions, operational planning, and logistics, as well as “leaking” emotional intensity through paralinguistic cues. In contrast, both people who support extremist action but are not intent on mobilizing, and people who are, post-ideological and hateful content, so this content cannot help elucidate the mobilization process. To enable accurate explanation and prediction of mobilization, theories of collective action and mobilization need to describe the behaviors and conditions that lead to a radicalized individual passing a psychological tipping point that enables action. In turn, these insights and methods may help law enforcement personnel to identify the “needles” of terrorism in an ever-growing “haystack” of extremist content.

Olivia Brown is a lecturer at the University of Bath. Laura G. E. Smith is a Professor of Psychology at the University of Bath. Brit Davidson is an Associate Professor of Analytics at the University of Bath. Adam Joinson holds the post of ‘Professor of Information Systems’ at the University of Bath, School of Management. This article is published courtesy of the Center for Research and Evidence on Security Threats (CREST).