FOREIGN POLICYIs the American Empire collapsing?
The United States remains a global power unparalleled in history. So what would it take for this situation to change? Four possible developments or events seem to be plausible candidates.
Is the far-reaching and long-standing American empire nearing its end? The question seems especially relevant now that the backdrop includes wars in Europe and the Middle East, and an increasingly tense security situation in East Asia.
The United States is also deeply polarised and currently in the midst of a presidential campaign featuring two seemingly unsuitable candidates.
A Powerful United States
The United States is still the most powerful state in the world. Its military budget (for 2023) was $880 billion, which is equivalent to 37 per cent of the world’s military spending. China accounts for 13 per cent and Russia only five per cent.
The next 14 countries on the list are all either formal allies of the United States or closely tied to it in terms of security policy. In a historical context, Washington’s network of alliances is unique.
In addition, the United States’ closest allies are also among the largest and most developed economies in the world. The United States’ GDP accounts for over 26 per cent of the world’s total (compared to China’s 17 per cent).
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The United States remains an unparalleled global power. So what would it take for this situation to change?
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Among other factors that are even more indicative of the United States’ continuing leadership role are that their military forces are deployed at bases all around the world, and their global military infrastructure is well-developed. Official figures on small and large American military bases outside the home country vary, but a common estimate is that there are approximately 750, spread across around 80 host countries. For the sake of comparison, China officially has just one overseas military base (in Djibouti).
Therefore, the United States remains a global power unparalleled in history. So what would it take for this situation to change? What are the possible scenarios that could lead the United States to withdraw and retract its global military presence? Four possible developments or events seem to be plausible candidates.
Another Round of Trump?
Firstly, it is quite possible that Donald Trump may soon embark on another term as president. However, Trump did not carry out any visible downscaling of the United States’ global presence during his term as president. There were many threats of this, but the initial withdrawal from Afghanistan, which was later completed by Joe Biden, was the only real manifestation of Trump’s apparent isolationist impulses.
