ELECTION SECURITYUnderstanding the Threats to U.S. Election Security in 2024
Despite widespread concern that foreign interference and generative AI would pose major threats to the 2024 election, the greatest risks emanate from rising domestic extremists and diminishing domestic trust.
With less than a week before the 2024 presidential election, physical and digital threats to U.S. election infrastructure remain a risk. Already, actors hostile to the functioning of liberal democracy have worked to disrupt the free exercise of the United States’ upcoming election, perhaps never more evidently than an assassination attempt that narrowly avoided killing former President and Republican candidate Donald Trump. However, it is vital that such threats are properly contextualized to avoid either exaggerating or downplaying the challenges U.S. democracy faces.
Are there security concerns heading into Election Day on November 5?
The United States is in a heightened threat environment heading into Election Day, with multiple extremist factions threatening to disrupt the electoral process. Two prominent assassination attempts on former President Trump have occurred against a backdrop of myriad disrupted plots and a record high number of threats to public officials, as violent political rhetoric raises the stakes. Both foreign adversaries and Salafi-jihadist extremists have sought to take advantage of this fractious moment by inspiring or launching acts of violence in the United States.
The days (or weeks) following the election could prove the most consequential, particularly if a clear winner has not emerged for the presidency. Such uncertainty gives conspiracy theories greater space to develop and circulate and can significantly increase political unrest or even violence within local communities. In 2020, for instance, vote-tallying centers in swing counties and cities—including Maricopa County in Arizona, Philadelphia, and Detroit—were targeted by extremist protests or terrorist plots.
______________________________________
“Given that Trump has repeatedly denigrated the integrity of both U.S. elections and law enforcement agencies, security services need to prepare for the Republican candidate to incite unrest once again should he fail to win the election.”
______________________________________
This year, violent far-right extremists likely pose the greatest threat, given the January 6, 2021, precedent of violence within a political transition, as well as violent rhetoric repeatedly issued by the Republican Party’s candidate. The Department of Homeland Security has even warned that the “heightened risk” of violence might include extremists attempting to sabotage ballots—a step that, if successful, could launch the country into a constitutional crisis.
Recent arson attacks on ballot boxes in Vancouver, Washington, and Portland, Oregon, remain unsolved. Meanwhile, anti-government militia groups remain active on Facebook—the social media platform appears to have allowed its
