POLITICAL VIOLENCEOn Reducing Public Fears and Threats of Political Violence

By John S. Hollywood

The 2024 election is over, with no substantial violence. Given the political divides in the United States, and an information environment primed to inflame them, we can breathe a sigh of relief and congratulate ourselves for completing the election safely. As my earlier post noted, on the whole Americans really don’t want to engage in mass political violence.

However, that does not mean the risks of political violence and unrest are off the table. Since the election, bomb threats and swatting attempts have targeted members of Congress and recent presidential appointees. This takes place as credible threats against members of Congress are increasing dramatically, growing from around 900 in 2016 to over 8,000 in 2023.

A likely key driver: fears of what the other political side will have America become. While the specifics differ, too many on both sides of the political divide agreed that the opposing party would usher in an authoritarian regime. One poll found that over two-thirds of respondents, regardless of party, felt that the other party’s agenda “poses a threat that if not stopped will destroy America as we know it.”

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While the specifics differ, too many on both sides of the political divide agreed that the opposing party would usher in an authoritarian regime.

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This is a potential recipe for unrest and targeted violence, such as the plots to assassinate then-candidate Trump. On a civic level, it raises the risk of runaway, escalating political conflicts. And that’s not counting the psychic burden on Americans. As one recent poll found, three-quarters of Americans are scared about “the way things are going in the world today”.

Simply telling the public they are wrong about the prospects of political catastrophe is unlikely to help. In my earlier post on the risks of civil war and mass violence, I mentioned the study by Populace (PDF) showing that, when given privacy on their true opinion, only 4 percent supported the prospect of political violence. In the same survey, when given privacy, only 7 percent of Americans said they believe they live in a mostly fair society. Only 7 percent have trust in media and only 4 percent have trust in the government to “tell the truth.”

So, what are some other options? First, deal with the acute threat in the near term then start the slow process of rebuilding trust and reducing the public’s fears.