TERRORISMIslamic State: Despite the Fall of Its Caliphate, the Group Is Still Influencing Terrorism

By Busra Nisa Sarac

Published 10 January 2025

The New Yer Day’s attack in New Orleans demonstrates the resilience of IS despite its lack of territorial control, as well as its commitment to inspire lone-wolf attacks in an attempt to gain widespread coverage.

At 3:15am on New Year’s Day, a 42-year-old US citizen and army veteran from Texas called Shamsud-Din Jabbar drove a rented pickup truck into a crowd on Bourbon Street in New Orleans, killing 15 people and injuring at least 35 more.

The Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) called the attack an “act of terrorism” and said that Jabbar appeared to have been motivated by the Islamic State (IS) terrorist organization. The group’s infamous black flag was recovered from the back of his vehicle, and he had posted videos online proclaiming his support for IS.

We do not know whether Jabbar, who was fatally shot by police, was a genuine IS operative. But the style of his attack was consistent with those committed on behalf of the group in the past. Vehicles were used to target civilians in the 2017 attack on London’s Westminster Bridge, as well as in Berlin and the French city of Nice in 2016.

Jabbar’s attack demonstrates the resilience of IS despite its lack of territorial control, as well as its commitment to inspire lone-wolf attacks in an attempt to gain widespread coverage.

IS gained global attention in 2014 when it captured large parts of Iraq and Syria and established a so-called Islamic caliphate. Between 2014 and 2016, when the group was at the height of its powers, IS spread fear worldwide and managed to recruit thousands of men and women from nearly 80 countries.

Ten organizations classified as IS affiliates” by the US National Counterterrorism Center committed more than 1,000 attacks combined during this period.

By 2019, IS had lost all of its territory due to the efforts of a US-led military coalition, alongside Kurdish and Iraqi forces. However, the group had already begun preparing for a new structure.

The group transitioned towards a more clandestine network of decentralized cells, and takes advantage of unstable states primarily in sub-Saharan Africa to facilitate the movement of weapons, equipment and fighters.

IS has continued to focus on the mobilization and online recruitment of men and women to sustain its operations, too. This is done almost entirely through the dissemination of information and propaganda online. The result has been several high-profile attacks by recruits of the group and its affiliates over the past few years, including on Moscow’s Crocus City Hall concert venue in March 2024, which resulted in the deaths of 145 people.