WORLD ROUNDUPThe Philippines Is Ever More Focused on Taiwan | North Korea Has All the Leverage: But for How Long? | The Fall of Goma, and more

How Does DeepSeek’s A.I. Chatbot Navigate China’s Censors? Awkwardly.  (Vivian Wang, New York Times)
Asked about sensitive topics, the bot would begin to answer, then stop and delete its own work. It refused to answer questions like: “Who is Xi Jinping?”

The Philippines Is Ever More Focused on Taiwan  (Derek Grossman, Foreign Policy)
Beijing’s threats in the region have changed Manila’s approach to security.

Pathways to a Durable Israeli-Palestinian Peace  (Charles P. Ries et al., RAND)
he authors examine the possibility that the extraordinary costs and destructiveness of the present Israeli-Palestinian conflict could demonstrate to all the urgent need for a path to a durable peace. The authors consider the history of this asymmetrical conflict; identify lessons from attempts to resolve other thorny conflicts; and set out a road map with short-, medium-, and long-term security, governance, economic, physical and social, and international pathways to such a peace.

Exploring Factors for U.S.-Russia Crisis Stability in Space  (RAND)
Military competition in space between the United States and Russia has intensified. As a result, understanding Russia’s perspectives on the space domain and identifying the key factors that threaten U.S.-Russia crisis stability in space have become increasingly important for devising and implementing crisis management strategies. In this report, the author seeks to better understand Russia’s perspectives on space and crisis stability and explores the issue of escalation in space between the United States and Russia.

North Korea Has All the Leverage: But for How Long?  (Bruce Bennett, 1945)
The North Korean regime must be celebrating. After years of bad news on its foreign relations, the regime is finally getting what it presumably perceives as a fair amount of good news. North Korean leader Kim Jong-un can now claim that not only has Russia become a major ally, but also that North Korea is providing military assistance to this major power. And Russia is providing North Korea with resources and military capabilities that Kim clearly wants. Meanwhile, Kim is clearly pleased that his arch enemy, South Korea, is suffering political turmoil. And Kim presumably hopes that he will be able to extract concessions from the new Trump Administration.

China’s Economic, Scientific, and Information Activities in the Arctic  (Stephanie Pezard, (RAND)
Benign Activities or Hidden Agenda?

The Fall of Goma  (Michelle Gavin, CFR)
As civilians in Goma once again flee chaos, leaders fail to take responsibility for the crisis.

China’s DeepSeek Is America’s AI Sputnik Moment  (Selina Xu, The Diplomat)
A Chinese AI model is now as good as leading U.S. AI models, using only a tiny fraction of GPU resources available. This is a gamechanger for the global AI arms race.

Panama Canal: What’s at Stake for China Amid US Threats?  (James Chater, DW)
President Donald Trump has vowed to “take back” control of the Panama Canal. Could Washington’s tough talk create an opening for Beijing?