MIGRATION Trump’s Tariff Threats Fit a Growing Global Phenomenon: Hardball Migration Diplomacy
As an expert on migration policy and international affairs, I have observed the evolution of this global trend: nations leverage migration policies for geopolitical ends. While migration diplomacy does work both ways, richer countries by and large have the upper hand. And Trump’s threats against Colombia –and others –are just one example of this hardball migration diplomacy.
As diplomatic spats go, it was short-lived.
On Jan 26, 2025, Colombian President Gustavo Petro turned away American military planes carrying people being deported from the United States. In response, U.S. President Donald Trump threatened 25% tariffs and travel bans on Colombian government officials. Despite insisting that “the U.S. cannot treat Colombian migrants as criminals” and needed to “establish a protocol for the dignified treatment of migrants before we receive them,” Petro’s government backed down and resumed cooperation with U.S. immigration officials.
All this took place in the span of just a few hours. But “migration diplomacy” – the use of diplomatic tools and threats to control the number and flow of migrants – isn’t new. Indeed, it was a feature of Trump’s first administration. And it is not unique to Trump; it has been in the foreign policy playbook of previous U.S. presidents as well as the European Union and governments around the world.
As an expert on migration policy and international affairs, I have observed the evolution of this global trend, in which nations leverage migration policies for geopolitical ends.
Richer countries with increasingly populist, nationalist bases are putting in place anti-migrant policies. But these same nations depend on poorer countries to accept deportations and host the majority of the world’s refugees – governments can’t unilaterally “dump” deported immigrants back into the home country, or in a third country.
And while migration diplomacy can be cooperative, there’s always the possibility a disagreement will spiral into diplomatic spats or outright conflict.
Threats to Control Migration
Migration diplomacy is a relatively recent academic term. But the practice of using foreign policy tools to control migration is centuries old. Common tools of migrant diplomacy fall between the “carrots” of bilateral treaties, development aid and infrastructure investment, and the “sticks” of tariffs, travel bans and sanctions.
Trump, during his first term, focused more on the sticks, frequently threatening tariffs or cuts in aid to push through deals on migration. For example, in 2018, Trump posted on Twitter that if Honduras and other Central American governments did not stop migrant caravans to the U.S., he would cut all aid: “no more money or aid will be given … effective immediately!”
A few months later, Trump followed through with the threat, suspending US$400 million in aid to Guatemala, Honduras and El Salvador.
Trump then upped the ante, posting: “Now we are looking at the ‘BAN,’ … Tariffs, Remittance Fees, or all of the above. Guatemala has not been good.”
