FORTRESS EUROPECould the EU Become a Military Superpower?
Only two weeks after a European Union summit where the bloc’s leaders pledged to spend billions on defense in a “watershed moment for Europe,” they are returning to Brussels to solidify plans for strengthening Europe’s defense autonomy amid ongoing doubts about the US commitment to protecting European nations and sustaining military support for Ukraine.
Only two weeks after a European Union summit where the bloc’s leaders pledged to spend billions on defense in a “watershed moment for Europe,” they are returning to Brussels for another meeting on March 20-21. This time, the EU’s leaders aim to solidify plans for strengthening Europe’s defense autonomy amid ongoing doubts about the US commitment to protecting European nations and sustaining military support for Ukraine.
In the runup to the summit, the bloc’s foreign ministers on March 17 talked about EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas’s latest proposal to find money for Kyiv. And on March 19, the European Commission is set to unveil a white paper on the future of European defense. The paper is expected to come up with ideas on how to create a proper integrated European defense market and to flesh out the proposal, made in the European Commission’s ReArm Europe plan, where the EU executive would generate up to 800 billion euros ($872 billion) for defense spending over the next four years.
As always in Brussels, there are doubts about how credible all this really is. Diplomats I have spoken to agree that it’s a good first step, but, as one senior EU official told me, “The devil is always in the details, and there are plenty of devils here.”
Looking closer, it does seem that the 800 billion figure is very ambitious with lots of big ifs. If — and how quickly — this proposal can be translated into new weapons and ammunition. And if any of those weapons will make it to Ukraine.
The facts are clear. The EU defense commissioner, Andrius Kubilius, noted in the European Parliament last week that Europe currently has a defense shortfall of at least 500 billion euros, and is lacking “thousands of tanks and armored vehicles.”
European Union Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, also addressing the Strasbourg chamber, noted that, on average, EU countries contributed just short of 2 percent of gross domestic product (GDP) on defense. Washington is pushing for 5 percent, whereas NATO, according to sources within the military alliance, is toying with the idea of making 3.7 percent the official target at its official Hague summit in June.
