WORLD ROUNDUPWill Israel Strike Iran? | Cuba Competes with Uncle Sam in the Caribbean Islands | Fear Itself: What Stands Between Germany and a Better Foreign Policy, and more

China Forces Uyghurs to Work During Ramadan in Bid to Prevent Fasting  (Shohret Hoshur, RFA)
The move is the latest to restrict religious observances in the name of stamping out extremism.

China, Not Russia, Is the Next Major U.S. Military Competitor in Africa  (Jason Warner, Lawfare)
Beijing’s more quiet military role on the continent is also more ambitious and sustainable.

A Primer on 21st-Century Economic Weapons  (Alex Zerden,Lawfare)
Columbia University scholar Edward Fishman unpacks key economic national security campaigns over the past two decades and provides a warning about the misuse of economic sanctions and export controls.

Fear Itself: What Stands Between Germany and a Better Foreign Policy  (Sam Denney, Lawfare)
In a stark new strategic environment, ensuring German security and prosperity will require that country address long-held and deeply ingrained fears.

Europe, Deterrence, and Long-Range Strike  (Lotje Boswinkel, War on the Rocks)
It turns out Europe’s favorite American import isn’t fast food or Netflix. It’s missiles, and Europe needs to start making its own.

Will Israel Strike Iran?  (Christopher Preble, Zack Cooper, and Melanie Marlowe, War on the Rocks)
Chris, Melanie, and Zack debate whether Israel will strike Iranian nuclear facilities and whether the United States would discourage, encourage, or participate in such an operation. They come to very different conclusions not just about the likelihood of strikes, but also the strategic logic.

How the Trump Administration Can Limit China’s Arms Exports  (Grant Rumley, War on the Rocks)
The United States should use a combination of bilateral and multilateral tools to limit China’s growth as an arms exporter. Doing so requires a two-pronged approach: focus on curtailing China’s ability to produce and export quality arms, while increasing pressure on countries considering buying Chinese weapons. The latter requires Washington to take a holistic view to arms transfers. U.S. arms sales have increased exponentially since 2022, but the limits of its defense-industrial base means Washington simply cannot answer the demands of every customer. When the United States is not best positioned to box China out, it should look to allies and partners to pick up the slack.

How Cuba Competes with Uncle Sam in the Caribbean Islands  (Economist)
President Donald Trump’s muscular diplomacy is floundering in the Caribbean.