WORLD ROUNDUPBeijing’s Changing Invasion Calculus | Post-Sindoor, A New Reality for India and Pakistan | Brazil Rejects U.S. Request to Designate Two Gangs as Terrorist Organizations, and more

Beijing’s Changing Invasion Calculus  (Evan Braden Montgomery and Toshi Yoshihara, Lawfare)
China might use its expanding coercive toolkit to put Taiwan in its crosshairs.

Post-Sindoor, A New Reality for India and Pakistan  (Yogesh Joshi and Harsh V. Pant, National Interest)
India has embraced an assertive strategy of escalation dominance to impose steep costs on future Pakistan-backed terrorism.

Trump’s Decision to Lift Sanctions Is a Triumph for Syria’s President  (Economist)
But Ahmed al-Sharaa badly needs to reassure minorities at home.

Why Donald Trump Tossed out the Syria Groupthink  (Greg Priddy, National Interest)
By announcing an end to sanctions on Syria’s new government, President Trump ended over a decade of foreign policy establishment inertia.

A Taipei Airlift: Lessons from Berlin  (Reid Yankowski and Robert Wes, War on the Rocks)
China’s 2024 Joint Sword exercises, and more recent Strait Thunder-2025A exercise, awakened the public psyche to the reality that the People’s Liberation Army is not just training, but rehearsing to blockade Taiwan. Such a blockade would involve halting traffic in and out of Taiwan and disrupting information flows to and from the outside world. This would isolate the nation and set the conditions for a subsequent invasion.
In terms of maritime forces, a blockade would almost certainly consist of China’s navy, coast guard, and maritime militia. These forces would likely seek to close the Taiwan Strait and adjacent channels with the goal of diverting civilian ships enroute to Taiwan.
To disrupt Taiwan’s airspace, Notices to Airmen would likely be issued warning of serious consequences, resulting in civilian aircraft bypassing Taiwan and the strait region. China’s air force and naval aviation forces would be primarily responsible for interdicting aircraft that attempt to approach or depart Taiwan. Additionally, China would certainly attempt an information blockade, which would control and restricting access to information in a designated area.  These activities would likely include cutting undersea cables to Taiwan, launching cyberattacks on civilian and military infrastructure, disrupting local media, and jamming communications networks.
While Taiwan has spent years preparing for this eventuality and can make tough decisions to protect its population, food and fuel would quickly become scarce. Under these trying conditions, its citizens would be subject to more intense Chinese Communist Party psychological pressure campaigns designed to compel Taipei’s surrender. (Cont.)