WORLD ROUNDUPChina’s Yuan Ambitions Are an Uphill Struggle | Why a Maximalist Approach to Iran Talks Won’t Work | Russian Mercenary and Paramilitary Groups in Africa, and more

European Trend Report on Terrorism 2025  (EICTP)
The evolving threat landscape of extremism and terrorism poses a central security policy challenge for European states, demanding a comprehensive and projective strategic analysis. Unlike many conventional trend reports that simply extrapolate past developments into the future, the EICTP European Trend Report on Terrorism 2025 (ETRT) is distinguished by its foundation in strategic foresight methodology. The European Institute for Counter Terrorism and Conflict Prevention (EICTP) utilizes the “SPHEERE” method-a collaborative, software-supported analysis platform-to systematically address these complex issues.

Trump Showed Images of ‘Genocide’ in South Africa. One Was from the War in Congo.  (Lynsey Chutel and Monika Cvorak, New York Times)
During a meeting with President Cyril Ramaphosa of South Africa, President Trump presented images, videos and news clippings that he said were evidence of genocide in South Africa. Fact-checking debunks the claims.

Trump Softens on Putin as Russia’s Military Edge Weakens, Officials Say  (Karen DeYoung, Catherine Belton and Mary Ilyushina, Washington Post)
Moscow’s advantage on the Ukraine battlefield is waning, experts say. But President Donald Trump seems disinclined to ramp up pressure on the Kremlin to engage in ceasefire talks.

Germany’s Federal Police Chief Warns of Right-Wing Extremist Youth Groups  (Tagesschau)
The President of the German Federal Criminal Police Office (BKA), Holger Münch, warns of an increase in criminal right-wing extremist youth scenes. “For about a year now, we have increasingly seen very young people with right-wing views becoming more radicalized and joining together in sometimes well-organized structures to commit serious crimes,” Münch told the Funke Mediengruppe newspapers. The internet is increasingly serving as a networking space for the right-wing scene. “Radicalization, recruitment and mobilization take place via social networks and right-wing forums,” Münch continued. According to him, the high number of right-wing motivated crimes and the quality of right-wing violent crimes are a “major challenge” for the security authorities. They were facing the scene with high control pressure.

Already Several Proceedings Against Young Neo-Nazis  ((Tagesschau)
Several members of the radical right-wing terrorist group “Letzte Verteidigungswelle”, which was broken up on Wednesday, had apparently already been in the investigators’ sights for some time. Several cases are pending against Jason R. and Benjamin H. from Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania, some of which involve politically motivated crimes. The federal prosecutor’s office accuses both of them of being ringleaders in the radical right-wing terrorist group “Letzte Verteidigungswelle”. NDR and WDR have asked the defendants’ lawyers for a statement, but they have not responded. The 18-year-old Jason R., who was arrested by police in Wismar, is also currently under investigation for a break-in at a zoo. He is said to have broken in with other offenders. According to the zoo’s own statement, employees subsequently found a dead goat with stab wounds in its stomach in a stream. According to earlier reports, several rabbits and guinea pigs had also been stolen, some of which also died. The specific role R. played in these crimes is still being investigated.

Russian Mercenary and Paramilitary Groups in Africa  (RAND)
Since 2018, Russian private military contractors or mercenaries have proliferated across Africa. The largest mercenary outfit is the Wagner Group, which was led by Yevgeny Prigozhin until his death in 2023. Russian mercenaries serve as an important mechanism by which Moscow seeks to reduce its growing international economic and political isolation. Mercenaries help accomplish this by expanding Russia’s global footprint and influence at a relatively low cost. The authors describe how Russia’s armed presence in Africa has changed from mid-2023 to September 2024. The authors identify where Russian mercenaries have presences in Africa, what types of activities they perform, and the resulting implications of mercenaries’ use for African governments, economies, and civilian populations. The authors also examine how publics in countries where these mercenaries are present—and publics in neighboring countries—feel about and discuss Russian mercenaries and Russia itself.

Why a Maximalist Approach to Iran Talks Won’t Work  (Sina Azodi, Foreign Policy)
The Islamic Republic, like the monarchy that preceded it, views access to the full nuclear fuel cycle as a right.

China’s Yuan Ambitions Are an Uphill Struggle  (Henry Tugendhat, Foreign Policy)
New Latin American lending raises more questions than answers.