Overshadowed by Border Dispute, India-Pakistan Water Security Risks Grow

Climate change is also increasing the frequency and intensity of droughts in the Indus Basin. A 2021 World Bank report indicated that Pakistan, India and Afghanistan were experiencing increasing water scarcity due to prolonged periods of drought, exacerbated by reduced glacial melt and unpredictable monsoon patterns. In 2018, Pakistan faced its worst water crisis in decades, with many regions, particularly in Sindh and Balochistan, facing severe drought conditions. This scarcity, combined with a growing population and expanding agricultural needs, is placing tremendous pressure on the region’s water resources.

Pakistan has expressed concerns about India’s upstream infrastructure projects, citing both technical issues and national security worries, including the potential for India to influence water flows during periods of tension. India, in turn, emphasizes its right to develop its water resources while acknowledging the need to address cross-border concerns through dialogue and cooperation.

Climate change exacerbates these insecurities by making water availability less predictable, thus amplifying the strategic importance of the Indus River and the need for cooperative management to prevent water from becoming a catalyst for conflict.

Despite these challenges, there are several strategies that can be employed to mitigate the impacts of climate change on water security in the Indus Basin.

Transboundary water cooperation is one of the most critical avenues for addressing these challenges. Strengthening the Indus Water Treaty and promoting joint management of the basin’s water resources through regional platforms could help reduce tensions and foster collaboration. Incorporating water security into broader India-Pakistan security dialogues could also deescalate tensions, ensuring that water-sharing agreements are insulated from geopolitical tensions. The establishment of data-sharing agreements and joint monitoring systems would improve transparency and provide the necessary tools to manage water resources more effectively.

The adoption of sustainable water management practices, such as water-efficient irrigation technologies, can help reduce water wastage in agriculture. Drip irrigation, water-efficient crop varieties and better crop management practices could significantly reduce the demand for water in agriculture, enabling more efficient use of available resources.

Finally, the implementation of early-warning systems and climate adaptation strategies could help the region better prepare for extreme weather events. These systems would provide real-time data on river flows, weather patterns and water levels, enabling governments to take proactive measures before disasters occur. Strengthening disaster preparedness at the community level, particularly in flood-prone areas, would be vital to reducing the human and economic costs of climate-induced water crises.

Neeraj Singh Manhas is special advisor for South Asia at the Parley Policy Initiative, South Korea, and affiliated as a subject matter expert at the Centre for Joint Warfare Studies, HQ-IDS, Ministry of Defence, Government of India, and a non-resident visiting senior fellow at the Centre for National Security Studies, India. This article is published courtesy of the Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI).