Xi Jinping’s Plan to Overtake America in AI | Syria’s Islamic State Is Surging | The West Is Rethinking How to Fight Wars | Is Civil War Coming to Europe?, and more

THE LONG VIEW

How the Houthis Rattled the U.S. Navy—and Transformed Maritime War  (Stephen Kalin and Selby Holliday, Wall Street Journal)
Officials are now dissecting how a scrappy adversary was able to test the world’s most capable surface fleet. The Houthis proved to be a surprisingly difficult foe, engaging the Navy in its fiercest battles since World War II despite fighting from primitive quarters and caves in one of the world’s poorest countries. The Houthis benefited from the proliferation of cheap missile and drone technology from Iran. They fired antiship ballistic missiles, the first-ever combat use of the Cold War-era weapon, and they innovated how they deployed their weaponry. The latest technologies have transformed maritime warfare, much the way they have rewritten the script for land wars in Ukraine—forcing militaries to adapt in real time. The U.S. is developing fresh ways to intercept the newest drones and missiles but still relies largely on expensive defense systems.

The West Is Rethinking How to Fight Wars  (Economist)
Ukraine’s daring raid on Russia has lessons for European armed forces. But they need cash, too.

Learning the Right Lessons from Afghanistan  (Ronald Neumann, National Interest)
The conventional explanations for America’s failure to stabilize Afghanistan provide little help for future policymaking.

Germany Is Building a Big Scary Army  (Economist)
Its allies are ready. But are the Germans?

Is Civil War Coming to Europe?  (Ross Douthat, New York Times)
Whether the debate is occasioned by a polemical book or a movie like last year’s “Civil War,” I consistently take the negative on the question of whether the United States is headed for a genuine civil war.
In those debates it’s usually liberals warning that populism or Trumpism is steering the United States toward the abyss. But with European politics the pattern is different: In France and Britain, and among American observers of the continent, a preoccupation with looming civil war tends to be more common among conservatives.

Germany Steps Up to Replace ‘Unreliable’ U.S. as Guarantor of European Security  (Stefan Wolff, The Conversation)
Two statements from world leaders this week bear closer examination. On May 27, the US president Donald Trump took to his Truth Social social media channel to proclaim that if it wasn’t for him, “lots of really bad things would have already happened to Russia”. The following day the German chancellor, Friedrich Merz, announced that his country would assist Ukraine in developing long-range missiles to deploy against targets inside Russia. Both statements are quite extraordinary.
Even by Trump’s own standards, the public declaration by a sitting US president that he is protecting the Russian president, Vladimir Putin, is unprecedented. Putin is under indictment for war crimes and has been waging a war of aggression against Ukraine for more than three years after having illegally annexed Crimea over a decade ago. There can now be no doubt left that the US has become an unreliable ally for Ukraine and its European partners.
This is the context in which Merz’s announcement of increasing defense cooperation with Ukraine becomes significant. While Trump continues to chase an impossible deal with Putin – even after threatening to abandon his mediation efforts less than ten days ago – Germany has doubled down on Ukraine’s defence.
Not only that, but as the EU’s largest and Nato’s second-largest economy, Germany is now also aiming to turn its Bundeswehr (the German army, navy and air force) into the “strongest conventional army in Europe”. Its most senior military officer and chief of defense, Carsten Breuer, has published plans for a rapid and wide-ranging expansion of defense capabilities.

MORE PICKS

U.K. Faces ‘Extraordinary’ Threat from Russian and Iranian Plots, Official Warns  (Lizzie Dearden and Mark Landler, New York Times)
Jonathan Hall, a British government adviser, said in an interview that hostile states were paying local criminals to carry out acts of violence, espionage and intimidation.

Why the Trump Administration Should Engage on Burma Now – and How  (Michael Schiffer and Hailey Becker, Just Security)
While the flames of Burma’s brutal civil war continue to burn, even after the tragic March 28 earthquake that killed more than 3,700 people, the so-called State Administration Council born of the 2021 military coup continues to lose ground to the ethnic armed organizations and People’s Defense Forces that now control substantial swaths of the country’s territory. While the junta has the stated intention of holding national elections in December 2025 and January 2026, its position remains precarious, propped up by support from Russia and China. And yet, as Burma inches toward a post-junta reality, Washington’s strategic myopia is striking. Beijing, on the other hand, is not making that mistake.

Walking Into Spiderwebs: Unpacking the Ukraine Drone Attack  (Nicholas Weaver, Lawfare)

Beyond mere military damage, the drone attack will usher in a new era of paranoia and disrupt Russia’s internal economy.

Untangling Ukraine’s “Operation Spiderweb”  (Paul J. Saunders and Samuel Bendett, National Interest)
Ukraine’s drone attack on Russia’s bomber aircraft was remarkable not only for its brazenness, but also for its impact on Russia’s nuclear preparedness—long a “red line” for the Kremlin.

Africa’s Most Admired Dictator Rolls the Dice  (Economist)
Kagame’s intervention in Congo threatens his legacy at home.

Pro-Trump Candidate Wins Poland’s Presidential Election – a Bad Omen for the EU, Ukraine and Women  (dam Simpson, The Conversation)
Poland’s presidential election runoff will be a bitter pill for pro-European Union democrats to swallow.
The nationalist, Trumpian, historian Karol Nawrocki has narrowly defeated the liberal, pro-EU mayor of Warsaw, Rafał Trzaskowski, 50.89 to 49.11%.
The Polish president has few executive powers, though the office holder is able to veto legislation. This means the consequences of a Nawrocki victory will be felt keenly, both in Poland and across Europe.
With this power, Nawrocki, backed by the conservative Law and Justice party, will no doubt stymie the ability of Prime Minister Donald Tusk and his Civic Platform-led coalition to enact democratic political reforms.
This legislative gridlock could well see Law and Justice return to government in the 2027 general elections, which would lock in the anti-democratic changes the party made during their last term in office from 2015–2023. This included eroding Poland’s judicial independence by effectively taking control of judicial appointments and the supreme court.
Nawrocki’s win has given pro-Donald Trump, anti-liberal, anti-EU forces across the continent a shot in the arm. It’s bad news for the EU, Ukraine and women.

U.S. Proposes Interim Step in Iran Nuclear Talks Allowing Some Enrichment  (Farnaz FassihiDavid E. Sanger and Jonathan Swan, New York Times)
An outline by the Trump administration would allow Iran to continue enriching uranium at low levels while a broader arrangement is worked out that would block the country’s path to a nuclear weapon.

A New Era of Trade Warfare Has Begun for the U.S. and China  (Ana Swanson, New York Times)
Instead of battling over tariffs, Washington and Beijing have turned to a potentially far more harmful strategy: flexing their control over global supply chains

Troop Casualties in Ukraine War Near 1.4 Million, Study Finds  (Helene Cooper, New York Times)
With high casualty figures and the slow pace of Russia’s territorial gains, President Vladimir V. Putin could face years more of a grinding war of attrition in Ukraine.

Anti-immigrant Leader Quits Dutch Cabinet, Toppling Government  (Annabelle Timsit, Washington Post)
Geert Wilders said his Party for Freedom would exit the Dutch governing coalition over disagreements on immigration and asylum, prompting the prime minister to resign.

Asia’s Forgotten Hellscape  (Economist)
A real-world demonstration of Chinese hegemony in action,

Nayib Bukele Is Devolving from Tech-savvy Reformer to Autocrat  (Economist)
El Salvador’s president is young, MAGA-friendly and ruthless.

Migrant Return Hubs Could Be Hijacked by Russian Spies  (Matt Dathan, The Times)
MI6 has raised concerns about Keir Starmer’s proposals to send failed asylum seekers to the Balkans.