The Taiwan Scenarios 2: Warning Signs

Quarantine
In a quarantine scenario, the first warning would likely come from Beijing’s political rhetoric, with official statements possibly raising alarms about alleged biological threats or arms smuggling originating in Taiwan. The Chinese Communist Party’s United Front apparatus would likely amplify these claims across diplomatic channels and sympathetic media, sowing doubt and pre-empting an international response. Meanwhile, a steady stream of China Coast Guard vessels would likely begin to concentrate around Taiwan’s major southern ports under the guise of an exercise. At the same time, Chinese naval would likely position themselves at strategic chokepoints such as the Bashi Channel, north of the Philippines, and Miyako Strait, near Okinawa, quietly establishing the outer perimeter of a de facto quarantine zone. Aircraft would begin patrolling the same places.

Blockade
Unlike a quarantine, which China can present as a limited, legally justified measure, a blockade is generally regarded as an act of war. Beijing would almost certainly adopt more aggressive rhetoric, declaring that Taiwan had crossed a red line to legitimize its actions. The Chinese navy and coast guard would surge into positions east and west of the island, quietly forming the maritime perimeter of a blockade. At the same time, the air force would intensify operations in Taiwan’s airspace, flying repeated incursions to probe defenses and confuse early-warning systems with a multiplicity of targets. Behind the scenes, coordinated cyberattacks would target Taiwan’s financial sector, media outlets, military networks and government systems, setting the stage for widespread digital disruption. Other elements of China’s military, including missile units, submarines and aircraft carrier battle groups, would likely move to supporting positions, their presence serving both to deter third-party intervention and to reinforce the blockade’s effect.

Invasion
An invasion would be China’s most decisive form of escalation. Ahead of it, Beijing would likely intensify diplomatic pressure, possibly accusing Taipei of edging toward a unilateral declaration of independence. Yet in the final days before an assault, Chinese leaders might go quiet to preserve surprise. Behind the scenes, coordinated cyberattacks would target Taiwan’s power grids, communications and other critical infrastructure, while disinformation and psychological operations flooded Taiwanese media to sow confusion and fear.

What may initially appear to be a large-scale exercise could quickly evolve into full mobilization. Amphibious assault ships, transport aircraft and missile units would move into forward positions under the guise of drills, while military flights surged around Taiwan. Carrier strike groups and submarines would deploy east and south of the island, and strategic forces may reposition nuclear-capable assets to deter foreign intervention. Perhaps the clearest sign of an impending invasion would be rapid movement of field hospitals, fuel convoys and engineering units to embarkation points. This would be an unmistakable signal that an assault force is readying for action.

Nathan Attrill is a China analyst in ASPI’s Cyber, Technology and Security program. He is the editor of State of the Strait available here.  ASPI’s Defense Strategy program created Pressure Points, which is available here. This articlei s published courtesy of the Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI).