CHINA WATCHThe Taiwan Scenarios 3: Day Zero
If China decides to dramatically accelerate unification with Taiwan—whether through subversion, quarantine, blockade or full-scale invasion—the first 24 hours will be pivotal. But they will hardly be the end.
If China decides to dramatically accelerate unification with Taiwan—whether through subversion, quarantine, blockade or full-scale invasion—the first 24 hours will be pivotal. But they will hardly be the end. Taiwan will fight back. Whatever course China takes, it won’t be settling a dispute but creating an on-going crisis in the Indo-Pacific.
These are among the conclusions from ASPI wargaming of the scenarios in June. Two earlier articles in this daily series described the scenarios and the likely warning signs of impending Chinese action. The next will cover the longer-term results that could be expected.
Taiwan would not just collapse, capitulate or hand itself over. While it has been outpaced by the scale of China’s military developments, it is more capable than many assume. From cyber defenses and special forces to citizen resilience and political resolve, Taiwan’s initial response capacity would be significant. And it is precisely this preparedness, sharpened by decades of existential threat, that makes any Chinese escalation a high-risk gamble.
Each of China’s four main options to force unification carries a different tempo, level of visibility and escalation risk. But a common thread of Taiwanese response runs through all four: tailored resilience, surprising readiness and firm refusal to surrender.
Subversion
In the subversion scenario, China’s armed forces and intelligence operatives would attempt to disable Taiwan from within—crippling infrastructure, spreading disinformation, activating sleeper cells and launching false-flag attacks. The goal would be to create a pretext for a so-called peacekeeping intervention under the guise of restoring order.
Yet this silent war would not catch Taiwan unaware. In the first 24 hours, its security services would almost certainly move quickly to arrest suspected saboteurs, harden critical sites, such as power stations and data centers, and activate cyber incident response teams. Special operations forces are trained to counter unconventional threats and would be deployed to protect strategic locations. Military units would shift to alert status quietly but decisively and national leaders would take to the airwaves and internet to reassure the public and demonstrate control.
Public resilience in such a scenario is often underestimated. Years of civic mobilization, digital literacy campaigns and drills have prepared Taiwan’s people to recognize disinformation, report anomalies and trust democratic institutions. Any expectation that chaos would break public morale instantly is wishful thinking in Beijing. The first day of China’s operation to subvert Taiwan would not be easy for the Taiwanese—but the campaign would not be lost.
