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Extremism
Germany’s domestic intelligence agency says there’s sufficient evidence to warrant labeling the country’s main opposition party, the populist far-right Alternative for Germany, AfD, as “anti-constitutional” and an organization hostile to democracy.
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Paramilitaries
Loyalist paramilitary groups in Northern Ireland have reportedly told the British prime minister that they are withdrawing support for the 1998 Good Friday Agreement. Loyalists are supporters of Northern Ireland being a part of the U.K., and the decision was taken amid concerns over the U.K.’s Brexit deal with the European Union. The development raises fears of renewed violence.
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ARGUMENT: Intelligence failure
It was the most catastrophic intelligence failure since Sept. 11, 2001. One of the three branches of American government faced violent invasion. The invaders threatened the lives of the speaker of the House, the vice president of the United States, and all members of Congress. People died. Many more were injured. Moreover, Tia Sewell, Benjamin Wittes write, the intruders successfully interrupted the basic functioning of American democracy: its peaceful transfer of power and its ability to honor the results of an election in which those in power lost. “Yet on March 2, the man who heads the intelligence component chiefly responsible for domestic intelligence matters, for terrorism investigations, and for combatting violent extremism appeared before the Senate Judiciary Committee and had a pleasant exchange with senators. The committee members seemed positively uninterested in his agency’s obvious institutional failure in the run-up to Jan. 6.”
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Domestic terrorism
The U.S. Capitol Police Department says it is taking seriously intelligence about a possible plot by a militia group to breach the Capitol on Thursday. A far-right conspiracy theory has been circulating on social media platforms, contending that Donald Trump, who is continuing to spread lies about a fictitious mass voter fraud which cost him the election, would return to power on 4 March. This date was inauguration day for U.S. presidents until 1933, when it was moved to 20 January.
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Conspiracy theory
Thursday could be a big day. On March 4, Donald Trump will be triumphantly returned to power to help save the world from a shadowy syndicate of Satan-worshipping pedophiles – or at least that is what a small fraction of American citizens believe. But before you circle the date and dust off the MAGA hats, a note of caution: We have been here before. Adherents of the same conspiracy theory, QAnon, had previously marked Jan. 20, the day of Joe Biden’s inauguration, as the big day. It might be thought that enough failed predictions would eventually discredit a prophet, but apocalyptic movements rarely simply dissolve when prophecies are seen to fail. But these failures have often only strengthened movements, giving rise to new theories that attempt to explain the shortcomings of earlier ones.
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Extremism
Germany’s interior intelligence agency, the Federal Office for the Protection of the Constitution (BfV) has classified the entire Alternative für Deutschland (AfD) party as an “extremism suspected case.” The two largest parties in Germany, Angela Merkel’s Christian Democratic Union (CDU) and the Social Democratic Party are members of the governing coalition, making the populist, far-right AfD the leader of the opposition in the Bundestag. The designation allows the BfV to use additional surveillance powers given to it by the Bundestag last year, including monitoring email communications and recruiting party members as informants.
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Extremism
The French government yesterday voted to dissolve a far-right militia called Génération Identitaire (GI). The ministry of the interior has already used dissolution decrees against three Islamist groups, and, in October 2020, it dissolved the Turkish ultranationalist group “Gray Wolves.” The moves, led by the hard-charging Minister of the Gerald Darmanin, are part of the Macron government’s decision to confront extremists more forcefully.
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Insurrection
DBI director Christopher Wray told lawmakers today (Tuesday) that there wasn’t any evidence to suggest that left-wing extremists or “fake Trump supporters” were involved in the 6 January attack on the Capitol. The claims about fake Trump supporters, and similar conspiracy theories about how it was violent leftist extremists rather than Trump supporters who were behind the violence on 6 January, have been promoted by pro-Trump media outlets.
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Hate crimes
Hate-fueled attacks on Asian Americans spiked across major U.S. cities last year — in some cases by triple-digit percentages — even as overall hate crimes declined, newly analyzed police department statistics show. Moreover, the alarming trend has continued into this year, experts say.
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Domestic terrorism
The acting chief of the US Capitol police urged for security measures to remain in place amid ongoing threats by extremists. “Members of militia groups that were present on January 6 have stated their desires that they want to blow up the Capitol and kill as many members as possible with a direct nexus to the State of the Union,” Pittman told members of the House Appropriations Committee.
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Iran
The United States launched air strikes in eastern Syria targeting facilities used by Iran-backed militias. The Pentagon said the strikes, the first military action undertaken by President Joe Biden’s administration since he was sworn into office last month, hit “multiple facilities” at a control point on the Syria-Iraq border used by several Iran-backed militias, including the Iraqi Shiite groups Kaitib Hizballah and Kaitib Sayyid al-Shuhada.
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PERSPECTIVE: Prosecuting seditions
Lenawee County, Michigan, had an apocalyptic Christian nationalist militia problem about a decade ago. The group called itself the Hutaree, a name that members said meant “Christian Warriors,” though the FBI said it didn’t mean anything at all. The FBI had an informer inside the group, and nine of its members were charged with conspiracy, sedition, and various weapon charges. Judge Victoria Roberts acquitted the Hutaree members of the serious charges of conspiracy and sedition. Why should anyone care about the Hutaree now? Jacob Schulz writes that we should, “because one of those serious charges was seditious conspiracy under 18 U.S.C.§ 2384. It was the last time the Justice Department would use the statute until the present day.” It’s looking more and more like prosecutors might dust off the statute in response to the insurrection of Jan. 6. “The trial judge’s decision in the Hutaree case isn’t binding precedent. But the Hutaree are worth a second look.”
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Extremism on line
Social media platforms have received the lion’s share of attention for enabling users to spread hate and disinformation and plan and incite violence and terrorist acts. Flying under the radar are infrastructure providers like Epik, a domain registrar and web hosting company that works with nearly 750,000 websites and is ranked among the 50 largest web hosts. While some companies at the infrastructure level have acknowledged a level of responsibility for addressing abuse of their services—for example, this framework by domain registrars signed by leading companies such as GoDaddy, Tucows and Amazon—Epik is not among them.
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Extremism
The characteristics of peoples’ brains might offer clues about the political beliefs they hold dear. In a study of around 350 U.S. citizens, we examined the relationship between individuals’ cognitive traits – the unconscious ways in which their brains learn and process information from the environment – and their ideological worldviews. We found parallels between how those with extreme views perform in brain games and the kind of political, religious and dogmatic attitudes they adhere to.
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Extremism
Misinformation, disinformation, and propaganda are core components of radicalization and extremism and apply equally to Islamist radicalization and the generation of Islamophobia. One method of countering disinformation is to inoculate the information consumer.
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Insurrection
Last week we offered a couple of paragraphs from the landmark speech given by the Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Kentucky) on the floor of the Senate on 13 February. McConnell voted for acquitting Donald Trump because, he argued, the Senate had no power to sit in judgement of a former official who is now a private citizen. But in a memorable speech which will likely be read in high school civics classes and in American history classes in colleges, McConnell excoriated Trump for poisoning the minds of his followers with a “growing crescendo of false statements, conspiracy theories, and reckless hyperbole, which the defeated president kept shouting into the largest megaphone on planet Earth.” McConnell added: “The leader of the free world cannot spend weeks thundering that shadowy forces are stealing our country and then feign surprise when people believe him and do reckless things.” Todya we publish the entire first half of the speech, addressing Trump’s responsibility for fomenting the political unrest which, he hoped, would allow him to stay in power in defiance of the will of the American voters.
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Quick Takes // By Ben Frankel
Two studies of the demographic characteristics of the rioters who stormed the Capitol on 6 January found a surprising, and disturbing, fact: The majority of those arrested for storming the Capitol were middle class, middle-aged, employed, earning more than the average household income, mostly college-educated, and had no ties with the extremist groups. One study says that the finding suggests that there is “a new kind of violent mass movement in which more ‘normal’ Trump supporters—middle-class and, in many cases, middle-aged people without obvious ties to the far right—joined with extremists in an attempt to overturn a presidential election.” The second study says its findings suggest the emergence of “a new breed of extremist, one foundationally animated by devotion to President Trump, placing him over party or country.”
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Extremism
An examination of the records of 212 of the more than 250 people arrested by the police for taking part in the 6 January 2021 attack on the Capitol by Trump supporters, shows that only 25 percent of those arrested were affiliated with extremist groups such as Proud Boys or Oath Keepers. The other 75 percent appear to be the product years of lies and repeated conspiracy theories being circulated and amplified within a nearly hermetically sealed ecosphere of disinformation, fertilized by conspiratorial radio personalities, TV channels competing with each other in their support for Donald Trump, and Trump’s own unrelenting torrent of falsehoods with which he has fed his followers. We may be seeing a new breed of extremists, foundationally animated more by a devotion to Trump than a commitment to a specific ideology or party.
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Insurrection
U.S. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi has called for a commission to investigate the January 6 attack on the U.S. Capitol, the latest in a long line of independent panels appointed by lawmakers and U.S. presidents to examine moments of national crisis as well as policy issues.
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PERSPECTIVE: Prosecuting domestic terrorism
In the aftermath of the 6 January riot at the U.S. Capitol, many politicians, including President Biden, and public commentators called for renewed efforts by the federal government to combat domestic terrorism. Eric Halliday and Rachael Hanna write that that reaction followed a pattern over recent years in which mass shootings and other violent attacks have spurred demands for an increased federal focus on domestic terrorism. “[I]t is important to understand exactly what powers the federal government can and cannot use when pursuing domestic terrorists. This is particularly relevant because domestic terrorism occupies a gray area in federal criminal law between international terrorism and nonterrorism criminal offenses,” they write.
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More headlines
The long view
Southport Attacks: Why the U.K. Needs a Unified Approach to All Violent Attacks on the Public
The conviction of Axel Rudakubana for the murder of three young girls in Southport has prompted many questions about how the UK handles violence without a clear ideological motive. This case has also shown up the confusion in this area, and made clear the need for a basic reframing of how we understand murderous violence against the public today.
Mis- and Disinformation Trends and Tactics to Watch in 2025
Predicting how extremists may weaponize false narratives requires an understanding of the strategies that allow them to spread most effectively.
Evidence-Based Solutions to Protect Against Mass Attacks
Mass attacks like the New Year’s Day incident in New Orleans stir public emotion and have tragic consequences. While the investigations into this case will take time, we know from our work that there are things law enforcement and the public can do to mitigate and perhaps stop mass casualty events.