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Insurrection
House speaker Nancy Pelosi has announced a probe into the breach of the U.S. Capitol by former President Donald Trump’s supporters on 6 January. Some Republicans have also expressed support for the idea.
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Gitmo
The Biden administration announced on Friday that it was launching a formal review of the U.S. military prison at Guantanamo in Cuba, as the president has indicated his aim is to shut down the facility before leaving office.
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ARGUMENT: New American radicalism
Following the 6 January storming of the Capitol by Trump supporters who were incited by him to attack Congress in order to prevent the certification of Joe Biden as the winner of the 3 November election, many were quick to assert that the rioters were members of extremist groups such as Proud Boys, Oath Keepers, and Boogaloo Boys, or white supremacists. Robert Pape and Keven Ruby, both from the University of Chicago Project on Security and Threats (CPOST), write that the demographic, educational, and socio-economic profile of the rioters is much more disturbing: a close analysis of those arrested by the police “suggests a different and potentially far more dangerous problem: a new kind of violent mass movement in which more ‘normal’ Trump supporters—middle-class and, in many cases, middle-aged people without obvious ties to the far right—joined with extremists in an attempt to overturn a presidential election.” They add: “What’s clear is that the Capitol riot revealed a new force in American politics—not merely a mix of right-wing organizations, but a broader mass political movement that has violence at its core and draws strength even from places where Trump supporters are in the minority.”
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Domestic terrorism
White House and Pentagon officials are defending decisions to conduct in-depth reviews of the dangers posed by domestic extremists in the United States, pushing back against criticism that the measures will result in a so-called political litmus test. Nascent anger over the new efforts to look at domestic extremism in the wake of the Jan. 6 siege of the U.S. Capitol building has been growing in recent days, touched off by a decision by Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin to order a military-wide stand-down to determine the scope of the problem.
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Incitement
Three weeks after a neo-Nazi was convicted of murdering regional governor Walter Lübcke. In answer to a parliamentary information request from the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) party, the Interior Ministry reported that 1,534 crimes against politicians, party members or party property had been reported in 2020, a 9 percent increase on the year before.
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Extremism
Secretary of Defense Lloyd J. Austin has ordered a DOD-wide stand down to discuss the problem of extremism in the ranks. The stand down will occur over the next sixty days, Kirby said. This is so “each service, each command and each unit can take the time out to have these needed discussions with the men and women of the force,” Pentagon Press Secretary John Kirby said. Austin said in the meeting with military leaders that while the numbers may be small, they are not as small as anyone would like.
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Extremism
In October 2018 and November 2019, Europol conducted two Action Days geared toward meaningfully disrupting jihadist networks on Telegram – a social media platform favored by groups like Islamic State (IS) and al-Qaeda. A new report aims to understand the impact of the 2018 and 2019 Europol Action Days – first, what they meant for the health and size of the jihadist networks on Telegram and second, how they impacted on the phenomenon of migration to other platforms.
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Incitement
The claim that Donald Trump’s words led to the riotous insurrection on 6 January is complicated. Rather than wage direct war against sitting U.S. representatives, Trump is accused of using language to motivate others to do so. Some have countered that the connection between President Trump’s words and the violence of Jan. 6 is too tenuous, too abstract, too indirect to be considered viable. However, decades of research on social influence, persuasion and psychology show that the messages that people encounter heavily influence their decisions to engage in certain behaviors.
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The Week that Was
Security and police forces are bracing for violence by the more violent among Trump supporters and an assortment of other extremists, on two dates: The first is 9 February, which is the first day of Trump’s second Senate impeachment trial. The second is 4 March, which was the U.S. original inauguration date until it was moved to 20 January in 1937 (there were five exceptions: George Washington was sworn in on 20 April, and on four occasions, 4 March was a Sunday, so the inauguration was moved to 5 March). QAnon, still reeling from Trump’s loss on 3 November, has been feeding its gullible followers the fantasy that Trump has not really lost the election – but, rather, that he had won, but that he has chosen to be sworn in as president on 4 March, the original inauguration date.
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Extremism
Security and police forces in and around Washington will be operating at what they describe as “a high-level of readiness” as the impeachment trial for former President Donald Trump gets underway next week, worried the event could serve as a flashpoint for American extremists still angry over the outcome of the presidential election. Officials have been hesitant to share specifics about the intelligence, some of which has been described as disturbing chatter on social media platforms.
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Extremism
During the 6 January 2021 attack on the U.S. Capitol, violent Trump supporters—reinforced by a broad coalition of right-wing extremists—attacked police, who appeared to be caught unprepared for a violent encounter with a crowd which has been loudly and consistently supportive of law enforcement. In 2020, there were 16 incidents in which police and extremists exchanged gunfire, an increase from the 11-year average of nine per year.
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Extremism
Canada became the first country Wednesday to formally designate the Proud Boys a terrorist entity, according to the nation’s public safety ministry. The ministry said in a statement the group was “a neo-fascist organization” that “played a pivotal role in the insurrection at the U.S. Capitol” in Washington.
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ARGUMENT: Wrong focus
In response to Donald Trump’s election-related insistence that the radical left endangered the country, federal law enforcement shifted resources last year from what experts agreed was a more ominous threat: the growing far-right extremism around the country. Trump’s efforts to focus his administration on the antifa movement and leftist groups did not stop the DOJ and the FBI from pursuing cases of right-wing extremism, but the effect of his direction was nonetheless substantial. The scale and intensity of the threat developing on the right became clear on 6 January.
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Biological readiness
The Bipartisan Commission on Biodefense has called on the federal government to urgently implement the recommendations specified in its new report, The Apollo Program for Biodefense: Winning the Race Against Biological Threats. The report details an ambitious program to develop and deploy the technologies needed to defend against all biological threats, empower public health, and prevent pandemics.
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Biological readiness
President Joe Biden’s inauguration comes during the worst stage of the deadliest biological event of our lifetimes. As bad as this pandemic is, imagine if instead it were caused by the deliberate release of a sophisticated biological weapon. About 2 percent of those infected have died of COVID-19, while a disease such as smallpox kills at a 30 percent rate. A bioengineered pathogen could be even more lethal. Our failed response to the pandemic in 2020 has exposed a gaping vulnerability to biological threats, ranging from natural outbreaks to deliberate biological weapons attacks.
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Incitement
As senators plan for an impeachment trial in which former President Donald Trump is accused of inciting his supporters to mount a deadly insurrection at the Capitol, there is a growing concerns about threats of violent unrest in multiple countries, and the role played by the proliferation of dangerous speech on line – and by political leaders. U.S. law reflects the assumption that dangerous speech must contain explicit calls to criminal action. But scholars who study speeches and propaganda that precede acts of violence find direct commands to violence are rare.
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ARGUMENT: De-platforming limits
In the wake of the 6 January attack on the Capitol, major social media companies like Facebook and Twitter have applied their now-customary methods of content moderation to U.S. users considered to be spreading hate and inciting violence. “More atypically, companies operating the mostly invisible digital infrastructure which platforms such as Facebook and Twitter are built on, also demonstrated their power, taking down Parler,” writes Will Marks, a researcher at the Berkman Klein Center for Internet and Society at Harvard University. “But death on the internet is short lived,” he notes. “Without Parler or Twitter, disinformation and hatred — coded or overt — will continue to be broadcast.” Marks adds: “At a certain point, the question about what to do with Parler is only part of the broader one about how society should cope with the fact that segments of the population are living in different realities.” This is a problem for which there is no technological solution.
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Domestic terrorism
Fears that an untold number of Americans are being radicalized is prompting the administration of President Joe Biden to take a closer look at efforts to counter domestic extremism and at whether enough is being done. As part of the examination, Biden on Friday tasked the director of national intelligence to work with the Federal Bureau of Investigation and the Department of Homeland Security to produce a comprehensive threat assessment. The assessment is to draw on analysis from government agencies and law enforcement, as well as private researchers, as warranted.
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ARGUMENT: Insurrection investigation
In the days since the Jan. 6 insurrection, calls have proliferated for a national commission to report on the riot and its attendant events. “The calls are understandable and worthy—though some hard thinking is needed before launching any investigation,” Daniel Byman and Benjamin Wittes write. There is “a lot of sense to a high-level and broad inquiry by an independent commission to explore and report on the multifaceted aspects of Jan. 6 that have nothing to do with impeachment or criminal conduct,” they write. They offer a list of at least some of the questions that any commission will need to consider.
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Extremism
On January 10, 2021, Nation of Islam (NOI) Student Minister Dr. Wesley Muhammad provided the latest example in the group’s long history of virulent anti-Semitism. Muhammad delivered a two-hour sermon, broadcast live from NOI’s national headquarters in Chicago, in which he explicitly and repeatedly blamed Jews and Israel for the coronavirus pandemic.
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More headlines
The long view
Southport Attacks: Why the U.K. Needs a Unified Approach to All Violent Attacks on the Public
The conviction of Axel Rudakubana for the murder of three young girls in Southport has prompted many questions about how the UK handles violence without a clear ideological motive. This case has also shown up the confusion in this area, and made clear the need for a basic reframing of how we understand murderous violence against the public today.
Mis- and Disinformation Trends and Tactics to Watch in 2025
Predicting how extremists may weaponize false narratives requires an understanding of the strategies that allow them to spread most effectively.
Evidence-Based Solutions to Protect Against Mass Attacks
Mass attacks like the New Year’s Day incident in New Orleans stir public emotion and have tragic consequences. While the investigations into this case will take time, we know from our work that there are things law enforcement and the public can do to mitigate and perhaps stop mass casualty events.