• Americans in Former Confederate States More Likely to Say Violent Protest against Government Is Justified, 160 Years After Gettysburg

    Americans living in the Confederate states that violently rebelled against the United States during the Civil War express significantly greater support for the notion that it can be justifiable to violently protest against the government. Residents of what are known as the Border States, the slave states that did not secede from the Union, are also more likely than residents of Union states to say it can be justifiable to violently protest against the government.

  • How an “AI-tocracy” Emerges

    Many scholars, analysts, and other observers have suggested that resistance to innovation is an Achilles’ heel of authoritarian regimes. But in China, the use of AI-driven facial recognition helps the regime repress dissent while enhancing the technology, researchers report.

  • Preparing for Great Power Conflict

    How has the military experience gained by both the U.S. military and the PLA since 2001 shaped the way both militaries train? What effect do these experiences and training trends have on readiness for major power conflict?

  • Outlaw Alliance: How China and Chinese Mafias Overseas Protect Each Other’s Interests

    The rise of Chinese organized crime in Europe highlights its ties to the Chinese state, national security officials say. Recent cases show the suspected role of mobsters in Beijing’s campaign to repress diaspora communities and amass influence.

  • Radar Can Help Fight Wildfires, Identify Flash-Flood Risks

    Radar imaging technology can provide valuable insight into the location and extent of wildfires in remote Arctic and Subarctic forests, like those currently burning in Canada. Capable of penetrating clouds and smoke, and imaging day and night, Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (InSAR) can play a critical role in wildfire monitoring.

  • Forensics Lab Cracks Case on Newer, “Greener” Gunshot Residue

    Discoveries by forensic scientists about how gunshot residue behaves on skin, hair and fabric will allow crime scene investigators to catch up to the proliferation of new, eco-friendly types of ammunition and make faster, more informed decisions at crime scenes and in forensic laboratories.

  • Forecasting Flash Floods an Hour in Advance

    Korea has recently seen a surge in localized torrential rain and floods due to global warming. Frequent flash floods are hard to forecast and, when forecast, the accuracy is low. Forecasting of localized flash floods, based on rainfall radar, to commence soon.

  • What Are the Odds of a Truly Catastrophic, Even Extinction-Causing, Disaster?

    The Forecastong Research Institute (FRI) brought together forecasters from two groups with distinctive claims to knowledge about humanity’s future — experts in various domains relevant to existential risk, and “superforecasters” with a track record of predictive accuracy over short time horizons. FRI asked tournament participants to predict the likelihood of global risks related to nuclear weapon use, biorisks, and AI, along with dozens of other related, shorter-run forecasts.

  • China’s Ties to Cuba and Growing Presence in Latin America Raise Security Concerns in Washington, Even as Leaders Try to Ease Tensions

    There have been news reports that China made deals with Cuba to set up an electronic eavesdropping station on the island nation, just 90 miles from Florida and build a military training facility there. The China-Cuba connection is just one example of how the Chinese government and Chinese companies have been expanding their influence on America’s doorstep for decades. Not just through trade and investment, but also through espionage, military, law enforcement and drug activities. Such activities will greatly affect U.S. national security for years to come.

  • Our Biggest Errors in Afghanistan and What We Should Learn from Them

    However dramatic it appeared, the collapse of the Afghan government and military was not surprising. The seeds of defeat were planted long before President Joe Biden ordered the withdrawal. The American project was not based in a clear understanding of the realities of Afghanistan. Well-meaning Americans believed that they could persuade, cajole, or force a project that much of the population did not actively embrace or participate in. A chain of discrete policy errors flowed from this basic failure to adequately understand the country.

  • From Wadham to GCHQ and Back: Robert Hannigan on Cybercrime, Spying and the AI Tsunami Coming Our Way

    Is the much-vaunted cyber-Armageddon likely or even possible? One experts says that “‘State cyber threats do get overplayed. They can’t do everything and countries over-estimate their cyber capabilities – just as they over estimate their military capability.” The expert  insists, however, that “The challenges are ‘moving very fast’, as potential attackers learn fast.”

  • Testing Next Generation Flood and Wildfire Alerting Technology

    DHS S&T conducted a demonstration of new technology that integrates unattended flood and wildfire sensors with Integrated Public Alert Warning System (IPAWS) with Open Platform for Emergency Networks (IPAWS-OPEN). These systems have the potential to provide life-saving critical emergency alerts to people in affected areas.

  • Significant Intelligence Failures by FBI, DHS in Lead-Up to January 6th Capitol Attack

    A Senate panel released a new report detailing the results of an investigation examining intelligence failures by the FBI and DHS Office of Intelligence and Analysis (I&A) in the lead-up to the attack on the U.S. Capitol on January 6, 2021. The investigation found that intelligence failures and operational missteps by the FBI and DHS I&A contributed to the security planning failures that left frontline officers unprepared for the violent mob that breached the Capitol and disrupted the peaceful transfer of power.

  • Planned in Plain Sight

    Beginning in December 2020, the FBI and DHS I&A were receiving increasingly detailed, and worrisome, information – from informers, encrypted chat rooms, and other sources — that Proud Boys, Oath Keepers, and other far-right violent extremist groups supporting then-President Donald Trump were planning attacks on the Capitol and other federal buildings in an attempt to prevent the peaceful transition of power to the winner of the November election, Joe Biden. Despite the dire nature of the information, the FBI and I&A failed to issue sufficient warnings to the Capitol police, DC police, and other frontline personnel based on, and reflecting, the available intelligence indicating January 6th might turn violent.

  • Global Conflicts: Death Toll at Highest in 21st Century

    Conflict deaths are higher than they have ever been this century with over 238,000 people killed in conflicts last year. The number of conflict deaths almost doubled in 2022 compared to the previous year. And war caused a 13% loss of global GDP, according to the Global Peace Index.