• Planned in Plain Sight

    Beginning in December 2020, the FBI and DHS I&A were receiving increasingly detailed, and worrisome, information – from informers, encrypted chat rooms, and other sources — that Proud Boys, Oath Keepers, and other far-right violent extremist groups supporting then-President Donald Trump were planning attacks on the Capitol and other federal buildings in an attempt to prevent the peaceful transition of power to the winner of the November election, Joe Biden. Despite the dire nature of the information, the FBI and I&A failed to issue sufficient warnings to the Capitol police, DC police, and other frontline personnel based on, and reflecting, the available intelligence indicating January 6th might turn violent.

  • Global Conflicts: Death Toll at Highest in 21st Century

    Conflict deaths are higher than they have ever been this century with over 238,000 people killed in conflicts last year. The number of conflict deaths almost doubled in 2022 compared to the previous year. And war caused a 13% loss of global GDP, according to the Global Peace Index.

  • Facing Charges, Some Goyim Defense League Extremists Embrace “Sovereign Citizen” Tactics

    As they rack up littering charges for distributing propaganda, some individuals associated with the antisemitic and extremist Goyim Defense League (GDL)—including leader Jon Minadeo—have adopted pseudo-legal “sovereign citizen” tactics in a misguided attempt to escape legal troubles.

  • FireDrone Supports the Firefighters

    Researchers are developing a heat-resistant drone that can analyze the source of danger at close range in the event of a building or forest fire. This allows firefighters to optimize the strategy of a high-risk operation before entering the danger zone.

  • Four Ways Criminals Could Use AI to Target More Victims

    Warnings about artificial intelligence (AI) are ubiquitous right now, but we have been using AI tools for a long time. AI is a tool to increase efficiency, process and sort large volumes of data, and offload decision making – and these tools are open to everyone, including criminals. Observing how criminals have adapted to, and adopted, technological advances in the past, can provide some clues as to how they might use AI.

  • Robots Could Help Verify Compliance with Nuclear Arms Agreements

    Ensuring that countries abide by future nuclear arms agreements will be a vital task. Inspectors may have to count warheads or confirm the removal of nuclear weapons from geographical areas. Those hotspots could include underground bunkers and require confirmation that no weapons exist in a location at all. Now, researchers have devised an automated way to ensure compliance.

  • New Law Targets Gun Trafficking to Mexico

    A new law that imposes harsher penalties on gun trafficking is giving U.S. prosecutors a powerful tool to combat the illicit flow of weapons from the United States to drug cartels in Mexico. The cartels use the weapons to protect their drug smuggling operations, fueling an overdose epidemic that is claiming the lives of tens of thousands of Americans.

  • Why Norms Matter More Than Ever for Space Deterrence and Defense

    As the uses of space grow in significance, so too has the question of how to keep space systems safe and secure. Robin Dickey writes that one of the potential answers to that question is to fill in gaps in norms of responsible behavior for space. “What may seem like a relatively niche topic actually supports a broad swath of U.S. strategic objectives and has become a central line of effort in protecting national security interests in the space domain,” he writes.

  • Boosting Supply Chains by Recovering Valuable Materials from Water

    Promoting national security and economic competitiveness will require America’s researchers to find new ways to obtain the materials that we need for many technologies. Traditional mining is fraught with challenges, while water, from the oceans to geothermal brines, is an underexplored resource for providing various materials.

  • We Aren't Helpless in the Face of Increasing Fires and Smoke

    Canada, Mexico, or the United States have published strategy documents that aim to rebalance fire’s place in our environment through methods such as prescribed fire. Even the most optimistic outlook on these efforts sees them as long-term solutions, though. Yes, a massive paradigm shift is necessary. But it’s also clear something needs to happen immediately, too. To protect ourselves, we can take steps that won’t distract from those long-term goals.

  • Research Agenda Prepares for the Future of Science and Technology

    DHS Science and Technology Directorate (S&T) works to prepare DHS for  the future of science and technology. The requires remaining aware (and ahead) of emerging science and technology threats along with harnessing the latest advancements in science and technology as cutting-edge solutions for homeland security operational challenges.

  • Iran Can Produce Enough Weapon-Grade Uranium for a Nuclear Weapon in 12 Days

    Iran can now break out and produce enough weapon-grade enriched uranium for a nuclear weapon in 12 days, using only three or four of its advanced centrifuge cascades and little more than one-third of its existing stock of 60 percent enriched uranium. This breakout could be difficult for the IAEA to detect promptly, if Iran took steps to delay inspectors’ access. Within four more weeks, Iran can produce enough weapon-grade uranium for four additional bombs.

  • States Invest in Nuclear Arsenals as Geopolitical Relations Deteriorate: SIPRI Yearbook

    The new edition of SIPRI’s annual yearbook finds that the number of operational nuclear weapons started to rise as countries’ long-term force modernization and expansion plans progressed. The size of China’s nuclear arsenal increased from 350 warheads in January 2022 to 410 in January 2023, and it is expected to keep growing. Depending on how it decides to structure its forces, China could potentially have at least as many intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs) as either the USA or Russia by the turn of the decade.

  • Navigating South Korea’s Plan for Preemption

    South Korea has invested in systems designed to thwart a North Korean nuclear attack by preempting North Korean nuclear launch and attack missiles before they are launched – and also attacking the leadership and command and control nodes that support Pyongyang’s weapons of mass destruction. Clint Work writes that the South Korean approach is understandable, but that there is a catch: The constant talk of preemption “provides easy justification for North Korea to continually build more nuclear weapons. The result is that both sides may now be incentivized to adopt a “go-first” mentality during a crisis.”

  • The Microchip Industry Would Implode if China Invaded Taiwan, and It Would Affect Everyone

    Taiwan plays a critical role in the conflict between the US and China over computer chips. Taiwan has a huge share of the global semiconductor industry, but is also the focus of tensions between Beijing and Washington over its political status. If China invaded Taiwan, the global semiconductor industry would freeze, inflation would spiral further upwards, the post-COVID recovery would be reversed, and many of the tools we rely on would disappear from our shops for years.