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Rumors Grow of Russia's Nuclear Weapons Moves
European news outlets have been reporting that in the past twenty-four hours the Russian military has been moving components related to a nuclear weapon launch closer to the Russia-Ukraine border. NATO intelligence officials have said that a Russian submarine carrying nuclear-armed underwater drones has “disappeared” from its port in north Russia.
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Nuclear War: Does It Take Luck or Reasoning to Avoid It? Lessons from the Cuban Missile Crisis, 60 Years On
Sixty years ago, at the height of the Cuban Missile Crisis, President John Kennedy told his cabinet that he estimated the odds of an all-out nuclear war with the Soviet Union to be “somewhere between one in three and even.” How close we are to a nuclear war with Russia today? It is hard to tell. Deliberate escalation may be unlikely, and we may avoid the worst-case scenario. However, there are many situations that could unintentionally lead to disaster.
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Ukraine Warns of Looming Russian Cyberattacks
Ukraine is again urging its companies and private organizations to immediately bolster their cybersecurity ahead of what could be a new wave of Russian attacks. The government advisory further warned that the vulnerabilities could allow Russia to launch a renewed series of targeted cyberattacks on Ukraine aimed at disabling communication and information systems.
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U.S. Nuclear Testing Moratorium Launched a Supercomputing Revolution
On 23 September 1992 the U.S. conducted its 1,054th – and last — nuclear weapons test. After the test, and with the Soviet Union gone, the U.S. government issued what was meant to be a short-term moratorium on testing, but the moratorium has lasted to this day. This moratorium came with an unexpected benefit: no longer testing nuclear weapons ushered in a revolution in high-performance computing.
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Scientific Discovery for Stockpile Stewardship
Following the U.S. last nuclear test in September 1992, the Department of Energy’s national labs convened to develop a strategy and map out an R&D effort that would come to be known as the Stockpile Stewardship Program (SSP). Its mission was ensuring the readiness of the nation’s nuclear deterrent force without nuclear tests.
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Human Trafficking’s Newest Abuse: Forcing Victims into Cyberscamming
Tens of thousands of people from across Asia have been coerced into defrauding people in America and around the world out of millions of dollars. Those who resist face beatings, food deprivation or worse.
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Underwater Critical Infrastructure Unprotected
The many underwater pipelines, internet lines, and power cables are not protected. Western military and intelligence services have been warning for years that as the world has become more and more dependent on this underwater network, Russia has shown a growing interest in developing the capabilities to disrupt this underwater infrastructure.
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Importing Even More Crime
The number of encounters with illegal immigrants recorded by the Border Patrol in FY2020 was 458,088. In FY22021, that number increased to about two million. The number of encounters with illegal immigrants who already had criminal records in FY2020 was 2,438. In FY2021, it rose to 10,763.
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No Game Changer: Russian Mobilization May Slow, Not Stop, Ukrainian Offensive
The Kremlin’s aim to mobilize up to 300,000 men to fight in Ukraine faces significant obstacles and — even if achieved — may not prevent Russia from losing more ground or losing the war, analysts said.
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How to Deter Russian Nuclear Use in Ukraine—and Respond if Deterrence Fails
Russia might use nuclear weapons to achieve its goals in the war in Ukraine—a risk that has only grown as Russian forces confront Ukrainian counteroffensives. Such nuclear use could advance the Kremlin’s military aims, undermine US interests globally, and set off a humanitarian catastrophe unseen since 1945. What should the United States do to deter such a disaster – and if deterrence fails, what should be the U.S. response?
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Getting Serious About the Threat of High Altitude Nuclear Detonation
The ongoing commercialization of space with cost effective bulk electronics presents a tantalizing target for nations with a space disadvantage to target long-before a conflict could escalate to nuclear exchange. Robert “Tony” Vincent writes “the Department of Defense should get serious about planning for and countering the threat of high altitude nuclear detonations, starting with its various science and technology funding organizations.”
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Going Nuclear
Rather than fretting about the craziness of nuclear use, efforts might more usefully be put into preparing for the moment when Vladimir Putin realizes that he has lost and may seek to hold on to Crimea. At this time all the issues connected with ending this war – sanctions, reparations, war crimes, prisoner exchanges, and security guarantees – would need to be addressed. We may find it difficult to imagine that Putin can lose, and wonder about how well he will cope with his failed aggression, but it is entirely possible that at some point he will run out of options, and have to look failure in the eye.
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Escalation Management and Nuclear Employment in Russian Military Strategy
Any conflict with Russia will always be implicitly nuclear in nature. If it is not managed, then the logic of such a war is to escalate to nuclear use. “The United States needs to develop its own strategy for escalation management, and a stronger comfort level with the realities of nuclear war,” Michael Kofman and Anya Loukianova Fink write.
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DHS Debuts First Fully Electric Law Enforcement Vehicle
DHS became the first federal agency to debut a battery electric vehicle (EV) fitted for performing law enforcement functions. The Ford Mustang Mach-E is the first of a variety of EVs DHS plans to field across its varied law enforcement missions throughout the United States.
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U.S. Is Falling Behind China in Key Technologies: Experts
The United States has fallen behind China in the development of several key technologies, and it now faces an uncertain future in which other countries could challenge U.S. historic dominance in the development of cutting-edge technology. A new report envisions a future where China, not the U.S., captures the trillions of dollars of income generated by the new technological advances and uses its leverage to make the case that autocracy, not democracy, is the superior form of government.
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More headlines
The long view
How DHS Laid the Groundwork for More Intelligence Abuse
I&A, the lead intelligence unit of the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) —long plagued by politicized targeting, permissive rules, and a toxic culture —has undergone a transformation over the last two years. Spencer Reynolds writes that this effort falls short. “Ultimately, Congress must rein in I&A,” he adds.
Southport Attacks: Why the U.K. Needs a Unified Approach to All Violent Attacks on the Public
The conviction of Axel Rudakubana for the murder of three young girls in Southport has prompted many questions about how the UK handles violence without a clear ideological motive. This case has also shown up the confusion in this area, and made clear the need for a basic reframing of how we understand murderous violence against the public today.
Strengthening School Violence Prevention
Violence by K-12 students is disturbingly common. Ensuring that schools have effective ways to identify and prevent such incidents is becoming increasingly important. Expanding intervention options and supporting K-12 school efforts in Behavioral Threat Assessment and Management (BTAM) would help.
Memory-Holing Jan. 6: What Happens When You Try to Make History Vanish?
The Trump administration’s decision to delete a DOJ database of cases against Capitol riot defendants places those who seek to preserve the historical record in direct opposition to their own government.
Evidence-Based Solutions to Protect Against Mass Attacks
Mass attacks like the New Year’s Day incident in New Orleans stir public emotion and have tragic consequences. While the investigations into this case will take time, we know from our work that there are things law enforcement and the public can do to mitigate and perhaps stop mass casualty events.
Trump’s Cuts to Federal Wildfire Crews Could Have “Scary” Consequences
President Donald Trump’s moves to slash the federal workforce have gutted the ranks of wildland firefighters and support personnel, fire professionals warn, leaving communities to face deadly consequences when big blazes arrive this summer. States, tribes and fire chiefs are preparing for a fire season with minimal federal support.