IRAN’S NUKESIran Needs Only 4 Weeks to Produce Enough Material for 4 Nuclear Weapons

Published 22 November 2022

Due to the current size of Iran’s 60 percent, 20 percent, and 4.5 percent enriched uranium stocks, Iran can now produce enough weapon grade uranium for four nuclear weapons in one month and make enough for a fifth weapon within the following month.

The International Atomic Energy Agency’s (IAEA) quarterly report on Iran’s nuclear weapons program, Verification and Monitoring in the Islamic Republic of Iran in Light of United Nations Security Council Resolution 2231 (2015), was released 10 November 2022. It includes Iran’s compliance with the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) – the 2015 nuclear agreement between Iran and the world leading powers (the United States withdrew from the agreement in 2018).

The Institute for Science and International Security analyzed the IAEA’s report. Here are “Findings” section of that analysis:

Findings

·  Since the last IAEA report, Iran has surged the quantity of installed advanced centrifuges at its Natanz Fuel Enrichment Plant (FEP). It has added roughly 1740 new advanced centrifuges, consisting mostly of IR-2m and IR-4 centrifuges, making the current installed capacity over 50 percent larger than it was in August.

·  This large increase in enrichment capacity poses immediate challenges. It reduces the time Iran would need to break out and produce several quantities of weapon-grade uranium (WGU) for nuclear weapons (see also below). This increase erodes further the value of a revived nuclear deal, since the JCPOA allows Iran to store advanced centrifuges, enabling Iran to further reduce breakout timelines for acquisition of weapon-grade uranium or more quickly build back its enrichment capacity in the event of another breakdown of the JCPOA.

·  Iran’s breakout time remains at zero because it has more than enough 60 percent enriched uranium, or highly enriched uranium (HEU), to directly fashion a nuclear explosive. Iran may prefer further enriching its 60 percent HEU up to 90 percent (or WGU) that is used in Iran’s known nuclear weapons designs. In that case, it could produce enough for a nuclear weapon within a few weeks utilizing only a few advanced centrifuge cascades.

·  Due to the current size of Iran’s 60 percent, 20 percent, and 4.5 percent enriched uranium stocks, Iran can now produce enough WGU for four nuclear weapons in one month and make enough for a fifth weapon within the following month.