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Legal Questions Answered and Unanswered in Israel’s Air War in Gaza
The Israeli Air Force’s (IAF’s) bombing of Gaza since Oct. 7, 2023, has been widely criticized for the extreme level of civilian deaths, the choices of weapons used, and the way in which those weapons have been employed. Marc Garlasco writes that the Israel Air Force (IAF) dropped a staggering number of bombs on Gaza, and, what’s more, many of these bombs were “dumb bombs” which cause wide-area damage. Garlasco writes that that question “is how the IAF is assessing proportionality, which is the amount of civilian harm acceptable for a military target. To date, that appears to be heavily skewed to a point where Israel will accept extreme levels of civilian harm for questionable military value.”
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How Tennessee’s Justice System Allows Dangerous People to Keep Guns — With Deadly Outcomes
Michaela Carter was one of at least 75 people killed in domestic violence shootings in Nashville since 2007. Nearly 40% were shot by people who were legally barred from having a gun.
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Self-Assessment: Setting Expectations on the Russo-Ukraine War
The question of the expectations surrounding this war has become an issue in itself. Has an optimism bias pervaded the commentariat? Did pro-Ukrainian sympathies lead to playing down Russia’s inherent strengths and failing to appreciate Ukraine’s vulnerabilities? There was certainly more optimism surrounding the Ukrainian position at the start of the year than there was at the end — largely because of the meagre returns from Ukraine’s intensive efforts to liberate more territory.
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Fiasco: How Trump’s 2018 Decision Facilitated Iran’s Nuclear-Weapons Program
The 2015 nuclear deal between the world powers and Iran made it impossible for Iran to build nuclear weapons for at least twenty years – from 2015 until about 2035. Critics of the deal, lamenting the deal’s sunset clauses, said they were worried about Iran being (relatively) free to build an infrastructure for nuclear weapons in 2030-2035, once some of the deal’s clauses were set to expire. It was a legitimate concern. But the answer to that perceived weakness in the deal was not the answer Donald Trump gave in May 2018: to unilaterally withdraw from the deal and thus make it possible for Iran to build its first bomb in 2024.
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Reports Analyzing the Police Response to a Mass Shooting Can Leave Unanswered Questions — if They’re Released at All
Communities often rely on after-action reviews of mass shootings for a comprehensive and independent assessment of what happened. But even if an after-action investigation is released, a lack of national standards leads to wide variability in the detail of information in reports, an investigation found.
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The Bureaucratic Fix to the Military Recruitment Crisis
Declining recruitment numbers are vexing nearly all branches of the U.S. military. Removing a medical bottleneck could dramatically streamline recruiting for applicants and personnel.
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Iran Triples Production of Enriched Uranium
Iran has tripled its production of uranium enriched to 60 percent, after slowing down of production earlier this year, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) reported on Tuesday. Iran, free of the restrictions it accepted as part of the 2015 deal, is now producing about 9 kg a month of uranium enriched to 60 percent.
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Research on Extremism in the U.K. Hobbled by Skewed Research Environment
A new report, analyzing the research environment in the U.K. within which research on extremism takes place, found that there are problems in studying extremism and communicating the findings of studies of extremism. These problems have caused gaps in the knowledge base around extremism in the U.K. and a lack of research on specific extremist movements, especially Islamist extremism.
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Leveraging Artificial Intelligence in Explosives, Narcotic Detection
DHS S&T is applying emerging technologies in the development of artificial intelligence / machine learning technologies – and searching for ways to use these technologies to identify dangerous compounds, like those found in explosives and narcotics.
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Congress Bans Pentagon from Using Chinese Port Logistics Platform
The U.S. Congress has passed legislation that would ban the Pentagon from using any seaport in the world that relies on a Chinese logistics platform known as LOGINK. LOGINK, by tracking cargo and ship movements, lets Beijing monitor America’s military supply chain, which relies on commercial ports.
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Tainted Applesauce Pouches May Have Been Intentionally Contaminated: FDA
Cinnamon applesauce pouches available at Weis, WanaBanana, and Schnucks have been pulled from shelves after they were found to be contaminated with lead. The FDA says it currently believes the adulteration is “economically motivated.”
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Generative AI and Weapons of Mass Destruction: Will AI Lead to Proliferation?
Large Language Models (LLMs) caught popular attention in 2023 through their ability to generate text based on prompts entered by the user. Ian J. Stewart writes that “some have raised concerns about the ability of LLMs to contribute to nuclear, chemical and biological weapons proliferation (CBRN). Put simply, could a person learn enough through an interaction with an LLM to produce a weapon? And if so, would this differ from what the individual could learn by scouring the internet?”
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Red Sea Attacks: Why Arab Nations Won't Join Naval Coalition
The U.S. has announced a naval coalition to protect shipping from Houthi attacks, but only one Middle Eastern country has joined. Why have others — like Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Egypt — not done so? Each of these states has its own reasons, but analysts say that the one thing the three powers have in common is the fact that they don’t want to be seen as working in defense of Israel.
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U.S.-Led Taskforce Deploys in Red Sea as Middle East Crisis Threatens to Escalate Beyond Gaza
The world economy is strongly dependent on the global maritime supply chain. About 80% of international trade by volume is transported by sea. It does not take much to disrupt the global maritime supply chain. Intentional disruptions of the maritime supply chain by pirates or terrorists pose a challenge that goes beyond simple logistics. Attacks on civilian shipping directly affect insurance premiums and deter operators from transiting through certain areas for financial and security reasons.
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Claims That U.S. Abandoned Arms in Afghanistan are “Farce”: U.S.
The United States has again denied leaving any weapons in Afghanistan during the American military’s withdrawal from the country in August 2021, dismissing such allegations as “farce.” An administration spokesperson said that over the course of 20 years in Afghanistan, the United States had equipped the Afghan national security forces. In the face of advances by the Taliban insurgency, many Afghan forces had decided not to fight and lay down their arms.
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More headlines
The long view
Tantalizing Method to Study Cyberdeterrence
Tantalus is unlike most war games because it is experimental instead of experiential — the immersive game differs by overlapping scientific rigor and quantitative assessment methods with the experimental sciences, and experimental war gaming provides insightful data for real-world cyberattacks.
Using Drone Swarms to Fight Forest Fires
Forest fires are becoming increasingly catastrophic across the world, accelerated by climate change. Researchers are using multiple swarms of drones to tackle natural disasters like forest fires.
Testing Cutting-Edge Counter-Drone Technology
Drones have many positive applications, bad actors can use them for nefarious purposes. Two recent field demonstrations brought government, academia, and industry together to evaluate innovative counter-unmanned aircraft systems.
European Arms Imports Nearly Double, U.S. and French Exports Rise, and Russian Exports Fall Sharply
States in Europe almost doubled their imports of major arms (+94 per cent) between 2014–18 and 2019–23. The United States increased its arms exports by 17 per cent between 2014–18 and 2019–23, while Russia’s arms exports halved. Russia was for the first time the third largest arms exporter, falling just behind France.
How Climate Change Will Affect Conflict and U.S. Military Operations
“People talk about climate change as a threat multiplier,” said Karen Sudkamp, an associate director of the Infrastructure, Immigration, and Security Operations Program within the RAND Homeland Security Research Division. “But at what point do we need to start talking about the threat multiplier actually becoming a significant threat all its own?”
The Tech Apocalypse Panic is Driven by AI Boosters, Military Tacticians, and Movies
From popular films like a War Games or The Terminator to a U.S. State Department-commissioned report on the security risk of weaponized AI, there has been a tremendous amount of hand wringing and nervousness about how so-called artificial intelligence might end up destroying the world. There is one easy way to avoid a lot of this and prevent a self-inflicted doomsday: don’t give computers the capability to launch devastating weapons.