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Russia's Failure Leads to the Next Phase of the Ukraine War: Interview
Russia’s failure to achieve its initial objectives in Ukraine – and achieve them quickly and cheaply — has led to a rethinking in Russia about the next phase of the war. “You can’t bomb urban areas into submission. You can’t even bomb entrenched soldiers into submission. Military history proves that you have to eventually close the distance and take what you want,” say a military expert. “[Russia] would like to get reinforcements and resupply the southeastern fight. If they really want that objective of connecting the separatist areas [to Crimea] and pushing back the Ukrainian military and [that] being what they’re able to negotiate as their win, that’s still a tough fight that [they will] have to close the distance for.”
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China Has Capability to Use Space for Military Purposes: Experts
Military analysts say that China now has the technology, hardware and know-how to coordinate a war from space. The Chinese military would most likely use military technology in space to seek control in the disputed East and South China seas and fend off challenges on the high seas of the Western Pacific just beyond China’s near seas, analysts say.
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European Neo-Nazi Group Exports Anti-Semitism Across Scandinavia, Beyond
Sweden’s Nordic Resistance Movement held 185 “combat training” sessions in 2020 and has served as inspiration for American racially or ethnically motivated violent extremists. The Nordic Resistance is Scandinavia’s most dangerous far-right extremist group, actively spreading its hate message abroad.
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The Military Is Making Progress in Its Counter-Extremism Efforts, but Gaps Remain
DOD released its report on countering extremist activity in the ranks. Andrew Mines writes that the report is timely, as data from research by different organizations provide multiple metrics that show a relatively small but growing problem of extremism in the military. “Today, the U.S. faces an extremist threat that is increasingly mainstream and harder to counter with traditional prevention tools. The federal government is already undergoing a sea change in its own approach, and the military has shown that it isn’t shying away from the problem either,” he writes.
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DIY Innovations for Bomb Squads
Bomb-squad members must effectively employ critical thinking and problem-solving skills while working in stressful, potentially life-threatening situations. DHS S&T notes that bomb technicians’ ability to expect the unexpected and adjust accordingly has created a consistent pipeline of do-it-yourself (DIY) inventions to solve everyday issues they face, and the S&T works to validate these innovations.
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Food Security During a Nuclear Winter
A nuclear war would cause global blockage of the sun for several years due to injections of black carbon soot into the upper atmosphere, covering most of the planet with black clouds. This could result in less than 40 percent of normal light levels near the equator and less than 5 percent normal light levels near the poles. Research focuses on how meeting food security and nutrition in post-catastrophe conditions, which could last 15 years in some wet tropical forests.
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DHS Sued Over Vetting Program to Collect and Data Mine
The Electronic Frontier Foundation (EFF) the other day filed a Freedom of Information Act (FOIA) lawsuit against the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) for records about a multi-million dollar, secretive program that surveils immigrants and other foreign visitors’ speech on social media.
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With Threats of Nuclear War and Climate Disaster Growing, America’s “Bunker Fantasy” Is Woefully Inadequate
Faced with a Congress unwilling to fund large-scale sheltering measures — although in Europe and elsewhere, vast public shelters were built, the community bomb shelter was almost universally rejected in the U.S. as communistic — the Kennedy administration decided instead to encourage the private development of the individual shelter industry and to establish dedicated spaces within existing public structures.
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A Proxy War in Ukraine Is the Worst Possible Outcome – Except for All the Others
The United States and its European allies clearly said that they will not fight a war against Russia in Ukraine. Sam Winter-Levy writes that these statements obscured an important truth: The United States and its allies are already in the midst of a full-blown proxy war with Russia. “Western policymakers should not deceive themselves about just how ugly proxy wars tend to be… Ultimately, the only options worse than a proxy war are a cheap Russian victory in Ukraine — or a direct confrontation between Russia and the United States.
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Ukraine War: Four Weeks On, Pt. 1
The end of the war is not yet clear, but certain patterns have emerged which are as clear as they are surprising, chief among them the sheer breadth of Putin’s miscalculations. The Russian forces have not been well-prepared for war, and they are patently inadequate for occupation. Moreover, the Russian forces have suffered an astonishingly high rate of attrition. But even if Russia can no longer engage in maneuver warfare at scale with a reasonable hope of success, it can still inflict enormous damage on the civilian population and infrastructure by continuing, or escalating, its use of artillery, rockets, missiles, and aerial bombardment.
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Russia-Ukraine War Splits Germany's Far-Right
The Russian invasion of Ukraine has left Germany’s neo-Nazis confused: Should they support the authoritarian Russian leader or far-right nationalists fighting on the Ukrainian side?
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Jihadists, Far-Right Extremists Vex Russia–Ukraine War
Jihadist militants from Chechnya have been helping Russia in its war in Ukraine, but the influx of jihadist militants does not constitute the bulk of foreign fighters who have joined the war. It is feared that the pro-Ukraine ‘International Legion’ is infiltrated by far-right extremist groups who support Ukraine’s own far-right organizations. One expert warns that the war “will almost certainly attract far-right extremists, who have long viewed [Ukraine] as an ideal training ground to gain combat experience for the eventual ‘race wars’ they anticipate waging back home.”
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Ukraine Tactics Disrupt Russian Invasion: Western Officials
Western defense officials say Ukraine has been employing agile insurgency tactics to disrupt Russia’s invasion, and in the suburbs northwest and east of Kyiv, to push their adversaries back. Hitting and ambushing Russian forces behind the contact lines with fast-moving units, often at night, has proven among its most effective field tactics.
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Western Officials: Russia's Failures in Ukraine May Make Putin More Dangerous
New intelligence estimates suggest that up to 20 percent of Russian troops sent into Ukraine have been killed, wounded or captured as Ukraine fights Moscow to a near standstill. Senior Western officials are increasingly alarmed that Russia’s losses in Ukraine are making President Vladimir Putin more dangerous, some going as far as to compare him to a caged animal ready to lash out.
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What’s the Threat of Nuclear War Right Now?
As Russian President Vladimir Putin ordered Russian troops to invade Ukraine on 24 February, he threatened any intervening country with “consequences you have never faced in history.” And during an interview Tuesday with CNN’s Christiane Amanpour, Putin’s chief spokesperson refused to rule out the possibility that Russia would consider using nuclear weapons. Is Putin serious? And if Russia did deploy nuclear weapons, what would that mean for the rest of the world?
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More headlines
The long view
How DHS Laid the Groundwork for More Intelligence Abuse
I&A, the lead intelligence unit of the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) —long plagued by politicized targeting, permissive rules, and a toxic culture —has undergone a transformation over the last two years. Spencer Reynolds writes that this effort falls short. “Ultimately, Congress must rein in I&A,” he adds.
Southport Attacks: Why the U.K. Needs a Unified Approach to All Violent Attacks on the Public
By Barry Richards
The conviction of Axel Rudakubana for the murder of three young girls in Southport has prompted many questions about how the UK handles violence without a clear ideological motive. This case has also shown up the confusion in this area, and made clear the need for a basic reframing of how we understand murderous violence against the public today.
Strengthening School Violence Prevention
By Brian A. Jackson, et al.
Violence by K-12 students is disturbingly common. Ensuring that schools have effective ways to identify and prevent such incidents is becoming increasingly important. Expanding intervention options and supporting K-12 school efforts in Behavioral Threat Assessment and Management (BTAM) would help.
Memory-Holing Jan. 6: What Happens When You Try to Make History Vanish?
By Alec MacGillis
The Trump administration’s decision to delete a DOJ database of cases against Capitol riot defendants places those who seek to preserve the historical record in direct opposition to their own government.
Evidence-Based Solutions to Protect Against Mass Attacks
By Richard H. Donohue and John S. Hollywood
Mass attacks like the New Year’s Day incident in New Orleans stir public emotion and have tragic consequences. While the investigations into this case will take time, we know from our work that there are things law enforcement and the public can do to mitigate and perhaps stop mass casualty events.
Trump’s Cuts to Federal Wildfire Crews Could Have “Scary” Consequences
By Alex Brown
President Donald Trump’s moves to slash the federal workforce have gutted the ranks of wildland firefighters and support personnel, fire professionals warn, leaving communities to face deadly consequences when big blazes arrive this summer. States, tribes and fire chiefs are preparing for a fire season with minimal federal support.