• How the Russian Military Remade Itself into a Modern, Efficient and Deadly Fighting Machine

    The war in Ukraine is the first chance the world has had to see the full force of Russia’s new-look military machine – a modernized, professional fighting force that has been completely revamped since Russia’s 2008 war with Georgia. So, what did Russia learn from that conflict militarily, and how are we seeing it play out on the battlefield in Ukraine?

  • Why Putin’s War with Ukraine Is a Miscalculation

    Putin’s invasion of Ukraine is a geopolitical earthquake that will cause repercussions far beyond Europe. But the Russian president might be planting the seeds for the demise of his regime by overreaching.

  • How Much Damage Could a Russian Cyberattack Do in the U.S.?

    U.S. intelligence analysts have determined that Moscow would consider a cyberattack against the U.S. as the Ukraine crisis grows. As a scholar of Russian cyber operations, I know the Kremlin has the capacity to damage critical U.S. infrastructure systems.

  • Wide Range of Possible Targets for Russian Cyberstrikes, from Infrastructure to Smartphones

    For years prior to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Vladimir Putin’s government waged cyberwar aimed at destabilizing the country’s infrastructure, government, and financial systems, including several distributed-denial-of-service (DDoS) attacks in the run-up to this week’s assault. What are Russia’s cyberwarfare capabilities, and what would a cyberattack against the U.S. look like?

  • Which is the Bigger Threat: Offline or Online Radicalization?

    The Global Network on Extremism Technology (GNET) has just released a report which seeks answers to these questions: Are those radicalized offline or online more of a threat? Which group is harder to detect, more successful in completing attacks, and more lethal when they do so? Is the pattern different for youth versus older perpetrators and for men versus women?

  • What to Expect with Cyber Surprise

    The cyber domain has three critical characteristics which differentiate it from the kinetic domain: it is connected across the globe; it is pervasive in the economic life-blood of the world; and it is asymmetric in its ability to enable power projection. What, then, can we expect from a strategic surprise which we expect Russia to launch as part of its campaign in Ukraine? “We are about to see what war in the cyber era really looks like and, truthfully, nobody can tell you what will happen next,” Paul Rosenzweig writes.

  • There Is No Cyber “Shock and Awe”: Plausible Threats in the Ukraine Conflict

    People are talking about cyberwar again. Claims are made that any Russian military action in Ukraine will be preceded, accompanied by, and followed by devastating cyberattacks aimed at Ukraine and countries assisting Ukraine. Lennart Maschmeyer and Nadita Kostyuk write that “Cyber operations are not strategically irrelevant, nor are surprise cyber strikes of strategic relevance impossible. Rather, in assessing their threat we should distinguish what is possible in theory from what is feasible, and thus probable, in practice.”

  • Not a Suicide Pact: Urgent Strategic Recommendations for Reducing Domestic Terrorism in the United States

    America’s Bill of Rights protects U.S. citizens’ rights to free speech, to bear arms, and to be free from unreasonable searches and seizures, among other things. As the Supreme Court has consistently held, however, no right is absolute: All rights must be balanced against other societal needs, including and especially public safety. Barbara L. McQuade writes that as the threat of domestic terrorism metastasizes in the United States, Americans need to use the practical wisdom urged by Justice Robert L. Jackson – who, in 1949, advised that the Constitution is not “a suicide pact” — to ensure the survival of the republic.

  • Ukraine: What Would a Russian Invasion Actually Look Like? These Are the Three Most Likely Scenarios

    Russia has been laying the ground for military action against Ukraine since 2014, when it seized Crimea and thereby gained a more substantial military foothold to the south. Meanwhile, the ongoing war in Ukraine’s Donbas region allowed Russian security and intelligence units to continue to gauge Ukrainian military and paramilitary operations. If military action does occur, there are three likely scenarios for how it would play out.

  • Russia Planning Post-Invasion Arrest and Assassination Campaign in Ukraine: U.S. Officials

    Russia has prepared a detailed list of prominent Ukrainian opponents of Russia ad anti-corruption activists, and of Belarusian and Russian dissidents living in exile in Ukraine, who would be hunted down and killed by Russian special forces should Russia move forward with plans to invade Ukraine.

  • Addressing the Challenges to U.S.-Russia Strategic Stability

    What are the origins of the current divergence in U.S. and Russian threat perceptions regarding preemption? What are the practical consequences of Russia’s threat perceptions for U.S. interests? Could changes to current policies address Russian concerns while delivering the benefits afforded the United States by the status quo? A new RAND study offers answers to these questions.

  • New Cybersecurity Advisory: Protecting Cleared Defense Contractor Networks Against Russian Hackers

    Over the last two years, CISA, FBI and NSA continue observing regular targeting of both large and small Cleared Defense Contractors and subcontractors. Agencies strongly encourage organizations to apply recommended mitigation steps to reduce risk of compromise.

  • Possible Russian Cyberattacks Could Reverberate Globally: U.S., Allies

    The United States and its Western allies are bracing for the possibility that a Russian invasion of Ukraine would have a ripple effect in cyberspace, even if Western entities are not initially the intended target.

  • New Cybersecurity Advisory: Protecting Cleared Defense Contractor Networks Against Russian Hackers

    Over the last two years, CISA, FBI and NSA continue observing regular targeting of both large and small Cleared Defense Contractors and subcontractors. Agencies strongly encourage organizations to apply recommended mitigation steps to reduce risk of compromise.

  • Hotter, Drier Nights Mean More Runaway Fires

    Thanks to the warming climate, the potential for more severe nighttime wildfires is increasing, and warmer nights mean firefighters will not be able to rely on cooler temperatures to help them get a handle on fires, a new study shows.