• “Worst case” CO2 Emissions Scenario Best Match for Assessing Climate Risk: Report

    Four scenarios known as Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) were developed in 2005 to describe the potential scope and impact of global warming. The worst-case scenario was RCP 8.5, referring to the concentration of carbon that delivers global warming at an average of 8.5 watts per square meter across the planet (the best-case scenario was RCP 2.6). Scientists now argue that the RCP 8.5 CO2 emissions pathway — the worst-case scenario — is the most appropriate for conducting assessments of climate change impacts by 2050.

  • More Frequent Coastal Flooding Threatens 20 percent of global GDP

    Coastal flooding across the world is set to rise by around 50 percent due to climate change in the next 80 years, endangering millions more people and trillions of dollars more of coastal infrastructure. The land area exposed to an extreme flood event will increase by more than 250,000 square kilometers globally, an increase of 48 percent or over 800,000 square kilometers. This would mean about 77 million more people will be at risk of experiencing flooding, a rise of 52 percent to 225 million. The economic risk in terms of the infrastructure exposed will rise by up to $14.2 trillion, which represents 20 percent of global GDP.

  • Texas to Face Driest Conditions of Last 1,000 Years

    Texas’ future climate will have drier summers and decreasing water supplies for much of the remainder of the twenty-first century — likely resulting in the driest conditions in the last 1,000 years, according to research led by Texas A&M University scientists.

  • During Droughts: Where Is the Water?

    In low precipitation periods – where and how is the limited available water distributed and what possibilities are there for improving retention in the soil and the landscape?

  • Roadmap for Studying Link between Climate and Armed Conflict

    Climate change—from rising temperatures and more severe heavy rain, to drought—is increasing risks for economies, human security, and conflict globally. Scientists are offering ways better to assess the climate-conflict link to help societies manage the complex risks of increased violence from a changing climate.

  • Future Texas Hurricanes: Fast Like Ike or Slow Like Harvey?

    Climate change will intensify winds that steer hurricanes north over Texas, increasing the odds for fast-moving storms like 2008’s Ike compared with slow-movers like 2017’s Harvey, according to new research.

  • Increases in Greenhouse Gas, Particulate Pollution Emissions Drive Drying around the Globe

    Researchers have identified two signatures or “fingerprints” that explain why arid conditions are spreading worldwide, and why the Western United States has tended toward drought conditions since the 1980s while the African Sahel has recovered from its prolonged drought.

  • Heatwave Trends Accelerate Worldwide

    The first comprehensive worldwide assessment of heatwaves down to regional levels has revealed that in nearly every part of the world heatwaves have been increasing in frequency and duration since the 1950s. New research has also produced a new metric, cumulative heat, which reveals exactly how much heat is packed into individual heatwaves and heatwave seasons. As expected, that number is also on the rise.

  • Chances of 40°C Days in the U.K. Increasing

    The highest temperature ever recorded in the U.K. is 38.7°C (101.6 F) set in Cambridge in July 2019. This prompts the question of whether exceeding 40°C is now within the possibilities of the U.K. climate. A new study by the Met Office says that on current global warming trends, Britain could see 40°C (104 F) days every 3-4 years on average within a few decades.

  • Global Glacier Melt Raises Sea Levels, Depletes Once-Reliable Water Source

    The melting of glaciers and ice caps in places as diverse as the Himalayas and Andes mountain ranges, the Svalbard island group and the Canadian Arctic Archipelago has the dual effect of raising global sea levels and depleting freshwater resources that serve millions of people around the world.

  • Rise of Heat-Trapping Carbon Dioxide in the Atmosphere Unabated

    Atmospheric carbon dioxide measured at Mauna Loa Observatory reached a seasonal peak of 417.1 parts per million for 2020 in May, the highest monthly reading ever recorded. “Progress in emissions reductions is not visible in the CO2 record,” said one expert. “We continue to commit our planet - for centuries or longer - to more global heating, sea level rise, and extreme weather events every year.”

  • Vital Natural buffers against Climate Change Are Just Offshore

    About 31 million people worldwide live in coastal regions that are “highly vulnerable” to future tropical storms and sea-level rise driven by climate change. But in some of those regions, powerful defenses are located just offshore. Of those 31 million people, about 8.5 million directly benefit from the severe weather-protection of mangroves and coral reefs, key buffers that could help cushion the blow against future tropical storms and rising waters.

  • It's Time to Rethink the Disrupted U.S. Food System from the Ground Up

    The COVID-19 pandemic and resulting economic shutdowns have severely disrupted and spotlighted weaknesses in the U.S. food system. Farmers, food distributors and government agencies are working to reconfigure supply chains so that food can get to where it’s needed. But there is a hidden, long-neglected dimension that should also be addressed as the nation rebuilds from the current crisis. As scholars who study different aspects of soil, nutrition and food systems, we’re concerned about a key vulnerability at the very foundation of the food system: soil.

  • Mangrove Trees May Disappear by 2050 Due to Sea-Level Rise

    Mangrove forests store large amounts of carbon and  help protect coastlines, but mangrove trees – valuable coastal ecosystems found in Florida and other warm climates – won’t survive sea-level rise by 2050 if greenhouse gas emissions aren’t reduced.

  • COVID-19 Highlights the Need to Plan for Joint Disasters

    June 1 is the official start of hurricane season in the U.S., and scientists are predicting a particularly active season, including more major hurricanes. We have also entered the time of year when floods, heat waves and wildfires occur more often. Over the longer term, climate change is causing more frequent extreme weather events. Rising temperatures also exacerbate the spread of disease and could make pandemics more difficult to control in the future. Considering that most risk studies in the past have been focused on single events, is the U.S. prepared to deal with the possibility of extreme weather events as well as a pandemic?