Food securityWarming May Force Some Favorite Produce Crops to Get a Move On
Record drought and heat have some farmers worried about where and when crops can be grown in the future, even in California where unprecedented microclimate diversity creates ideal growing conditions for many of the most popular items in America’s grocery stores Warmer California temperatures by mid-century will be too hot for some crops, just right for others.
Record drought and heat have some farmers worried about where and when crops can be grown in the future, even in California where unprecedented microclimate diversity creates ideal growing conditions for many of the most popular items in America’s grocery stores. A third of the vegetables and two-thirds of fruits and nuts consumed by Americans are now grown on more than 76,000 farms across the state, yet 20 years from now certain California regions may simply become too hot and dry for continued production.
New research from Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (Berkeley Lab) shows that by the years 2045-2049 future temperatures will have more of an effect on when cool-season crops, such as broccoli and lettuce, can be grown than on where, while for warm-season crops (cantaloupe, tomatoes, carrots) the impact will be greater for where they can be grown versus when. The scientists describe pairing computer modeling with information about historic and ideal growing temperatures for five important California crops in their paper, “Projected temperature increases may require shifts in the growing season of cool-season crops and the growing locations of warm-season crops,” which appeared in the journal Science of the Total Environment earlier this month.
“To ensure food security for California and the rest of the country, it’s important to predict how future warming will affect California agriculture,” said the paper’s lead author Alison Marklein. “We need reliable information about how future climate conditions will impact our crops in order for the agricultural system to develop an adequate response to ensure food security. For instance, one major challenge when considering relocating crops is that growers have specialized knowledge of their land and crops. If crops can no longer be grown in their current locations, then the farmer has to either move to a new area or grow a different crop, which presents a practical and economic burden on the farmer.”
