• Studies: Hand Sanitizers Kill COVID-19 Virus, E-Consults Appropriate

    In a study yesterday in Emerging Infectious Diseases, Swiss and German researchers found that alcohol-based hand sanitizers recommended by the World Health Organization (WHO) are effective in killing the novel coronavirus. The authors noted that while 30 seconds is the recommended time to rub hand sanitizers into the skin and was the time used in this study, most people don’t use them for that long. And a study yesterday in the Annals of Internal Medicine with important COVID-19 ramifications found that 70.2 percent of 6,512 electronic consultations (e-consults) made by 1,096 referring clinicians to 121 specialists were appropriate. While e-consults can increase patient access to specialists, minimize travel, reduce the time between referral and specialist feedback, and lower unnecessary in-person clinic visits—which is essential during the COVID-19 pandemic—data on their appropriateness and utility have been limited.

  • Head Lice Drug Ivermectin Being Studied as Possible Coronavirus Treatment

    An antiparasitic drug sometimes used to treat head lice has undergone preliminary studies for use in the fight against the coronavirus — and has shown promising results, according to reports. Yaron Steinbuch writes in the New York Post that while recent reports have focused on the anti-malarial hydroxychloroquine as a possible miracle treatment, experts have expressed cautious optimism that ivermectin also could be used for COVID-19, ABC News reported. Ivermectin — which was developed in the 1970s and 1980s — was first used to treat tiny roundworms called nematodes in cattle, then for river blindness in humans, and most recently to rid people of head lice, ABC News reported. The drug’s antiparasitic prowess has landed it on the World Health Organization’s list of essential medicines. And recently, a team of Australian scientists has studied ivermectin in vitro in connection with the coronavirus pandemic.

  • Coronavirus Cases: Mathematical Modeling Draws More Accurate Picture

    Mathematical modeling can take what information is reported about the coronavirus, including the clearly underreported numbers of cases, factor in knowns like the density and age distribution of the population in an area, and compute a more realistic picture of the virus’ infection rate, numbers that will enable better prevention and preparation, modelers say. “Actual pandemic preparedness depends on true cases in the population whether or not they have been identified,” says one researcher. “With better numbers we can better assess how long the virus will persist and how bad it will get. Without these numbers, how can health care systems and workers prepare for what is needed?”

  • Here’s How We Extricate Ourselves from This Lockdown

    No politician or public-health expert can say when the novel coronavirus pandemic, and attendant lockdowns and social distancing, will end. But there is a roadmap—actually, a competing array of them—for extricating the United States from social isolation. Olivia Messer writes for the Daily Beastthat public-health experts surveyed by the Daily Beast said there were three main things authorities need to be able to provide—effectively, affordably, and with quick results—to the American public before it’s safe to send at least some people back to work and into public life. 

  • Ministers Told to Plan Gentle Path to Recovery With Ban on Alarming Talk of Coronavirus “Exit Strategy”

    British government ministers have been told to abandon talk of a coronavirus “exit strategy” as they try to ease public fears about an eventual end to the lockdown by moving towards a gradual “unwinding” of social distancing rules. Gordon Rayner and Harry Yorke write in The Telegraph that the government has been so successful in convincing people of the need to stay at home that there are concerns it could prove difficult to persuade them it is safe to return to work once the decision is taken to ease the current restrictions. Dominic Raab, the acting Prime Minister, made clear on Monday that the lockdown will stay in place beyond a legally required review of it this Thursday, but said there were “positive signs” that Britain was “starting to win this struggle.” He is being urged by some members of the Cabinet to announce that the lockdown will be reviewed again next week – rather than next month – to signal that the lifting of some restrictions is under consideration.

  • The Coronavirus Crisis: A Catalyst for Entrepreneurship

    Throughout human history, crises have been pivotal in developing our societies. Pandemics have helped advance health-care systems, wars have fueled technological innovations and the global financial crisis helped advance tech companies like Uber and Airbnb. The present coronavirus pandemic will arguably not be an exception; entrepreneurs can be expected to rise to the challenge. Businesses play a key role both in helping society get through an economic crisis and in creating innovations that shape society after a crisis. So one key question is: how will the ongoing crisis influence future society? While it’s hard to predict the future, we can develop an understanding of what is ahead by analyzing current trends. It’s clear the post-pandemic future will be different. What’s happening during the crisis will have a lasting impact on society. Current signs of entrepreneurial initiative and goodwill give us some cause for optimism. In the words of Stanford economist Paul Romer: “A crisis is a terrible thing to waste.”

  • Lockdown Shock Could Trigger “Unexploded Debt Bomb”

    An “unexploded bomb” of debt is being destabilised by the coronavirus shock, the global banking body has warned, as it predicted an “unprecedented surge” in borrowing ahead. Tom Rees writes in The Telegraph that more than $20 trillion (£16 trillion) of global bonds and loans due before the end of the year pose a “refinancing risk” with vulnerable emerging markets heavily exposed to the latest crunch, according to the Institute of International Finance (IIF). The global economy is starting a new crisis with corporate, household and government debt at levels never seen before after a decade of ultra-low borrowing costs and risky investor behavior. Signs of strains have already emerged in corporate credit, particularly the junk bond and leveraged loan markets, while government borrowing is set to enter uncharted territory. Rees notes that the world economy is entering a recession with $87 trillion more debt than at the onset of the financial crisis. The global debt to GDP ratio has risen by 40 percentage points over that period to an eye-watering 322pc and will hit 342pc this year, the IIF said. Unprecedented government support for economies and interest rates being slashed to new record lows are expected to drive debt even higher in the coming years.

  • Coronavirus Disease 2019: The Harms of Exaggerated Information and Non‐Evidence‐Based Measures

    Those arguing in favor of lockdowns say that postponing the epidemic wave (“flattening the curve”) gains time to develop vaccines and reduces strain on the health system, which otherwise might be overwhelmed. John P. A. Ioannidis writes in the European Journal of Clinical Investigation, however, that vaccines take many months (or even years) to develop and test properly. “Maintaining lockdowns for many months may have even worse consequences than an epidemic wave that runs an acute course,” he writes. “Focusing on protecting susceptible individuals may be preferable to maintaining countrywide lockdowns long-term.” He also notes that different coronaviruses actually infect millions of people every year, and they are common especially in the elderly and in hospitalized patients with respiratory illness in the winter. The only unique aspect of this year’s coronavirus outbreak is the unprecedented attention it has received in the media.

  • Population-Level COVID-19 Mortality Risk for Non-Elderly Individuals Overall and for Non-Elderly Individuals without Underlying Diseases in Pandemic Epicenters

    John P. A. Ioannidis and his colleagues did research aiming to evaluated the relative risk of COVID-19 death in people <65 years old versus older individuals in the general population; provide estimates of absolute risk of COVID-19 death at the population level; and understand what proportion of COVID-19 deaths occur in non-elderly people without underlying diseases in epicenters of the pandemic. The researchers concluded that “People <65 years old have very small risks of COVID-19 death even in the hotbeds of the pandemic and deaths for people <65 years without underlying predisposing conditions are remarkably uncommon. Strategies focusing specifically on protecting high-risk elderly individuals should be considered in managing the pandemic.”

  • UN Warns of Measles Spike as COVID-19 Halts Vaccination Campaigns

    Essential measles vaccination programs around the world are being postponed indefinitely for more than 100 million children as healthcare systems focus on coronavirus and countries enforce lockdowns and social distancing. The UN urges governments to keep track of unvaccinated children.

  • Safe Paths: A Privacy-First Approach to Contact Tracing

    Fast containment is key to halting the progression of pandemics, and rapid determination of a diagnosed patient’s locations and contact history is a vital step for communities and cities. This process is labor-intensive, susceptible to human memory errors, and fraught with privacy concerns. Smartphones can aid in this process, though any type of mass surveillance network and analytics can lead to — or be misused by — a surveillance state.

  • Empty Non-Coronavirus Beds Raise Fears That Sickest Are Avoiding NHS

    Close to half the beds in some English hospitals are lying empty in a sign that people may be failing to seek help for other life-threatening conditions during the coronavirus pandemic. Sarah Neville, Andrew Bounds, Mure Dickie, Federica Cocco, and Bethan Staton write in the Financial Times that the National Health Service in England moved aggressively last month to release more than 30,000 beds in anticipation of a flood of patients infected by Covid-19, halting all non-emergency surgery from mid-April and discharging anyone medically fit into the community.
    However, people familiar with the situation say that the speed and scale of the drop in demand for other services has surprised health leaders, fueling concerns that people are failing to seek help even for conditions as serious as suspected heart attacks.
    NHS England said that across the country, about 60 percent of beds in acute hospitals were currently occupied. A year ago, the equivalent figure was a little over 90 percent.
    A similar phenomenon has been seen in Scotland.
    As the U.K. government considers how and when to lift the lockdown, ministers are also concerned about the knock-on health impact on citizens who are staying away from hospitals and not receiving treatment for other ailments.

  • U.S. COVID-19 Cases Top 500,000; India Extends Lockdown

    The number of COVID-19 cases in the United States passed 500,000 yesterday, and deaths topped 20,000, while on the international front, India’s president extended the country’s lockdown and health officials urged Belarus to take new steps to curb its growing outbreak. The number of deaths in the United States is now higher than Italy’s total. At the global level, the total reached 1,767,855 cases yesterday from 185 countries, with 108,281 deaths reported.

  • Next potential shortage: Drugs needed to run ventilators

    As hospitals scour the country for scarce ventilators to treat critically ill patients stricken by the new coronavirus, pharmacists are beginning to sound an alarm that could become just as urgent: Drugs that go hand in hand with ventilators are running low even as demand is surging.
    Michael Ganio, of the American Society of Health-System Pharmacists, told Michael Rezendes and Linda A. Johnson of the Associated Press that demand for the drugs at greater New York hospitals has spiked as much as 600 percent over the last month, even though hospitals have stopped using them for elective surgery.
    “These ventilators will be rendered useless without an adequate supply of the medications,” Society CEO Paul Abramowitz said in an April 1 letter to Vice President Mike Pence, who is leading President Donald Trump’s coronavirus task force.
    Nationwide, demand for the drugs surged 73 percent in March, according Dan Kistner, a pharmaceuticals expert at Vizient, Inc., which negotiates drug prices for hospitals throughout the country. Supplies, according to Vizient data, have not kept pace.

  • Could an Existing Drug Help against the New Coronavirus?

    Perhaps no new drug against the novel coronavirus SARS CoV-2 needs to be found, as it is possible that existing active substances could help against the COVID-19 pathogen. Alexander Freund writes in Deutsche Welle that the advantages of using drugs that are already on the market are obvious: Not only is it cheaper to repurpose drugs that have already been approved or developed, but, above all, it is much faster because the lengthy clinical test phases can be shortened. Although at least 68 vaccine projects have been started worldwide, the German pharmaceutical association VfA  believes that even if a suitable vaccine is found in 2020, mass vaccinations are unlikely to be carried out even in Germany this year. So the only alternatives are either further isolation for months or treatment with already existing or developed active substances.