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The U.S. Is Losing the AI Credibility War—to Itself
Recent restrictions on advanced AI models are undermining critical U.S. cybersecurity outcomes. The administration needs a coherent strategy to work with the private sector, stay ahead of adversaries, keep allies on board, and maintain trust in the U.S. AI stack.
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Trump Administration Veers from the Rule of Law in Singling Out Anthropic’s Latest Models
Transparency, fairness, clarity, and evidence-driven enforcement should be core components of AI governance. So long as AI policy decisions are driven by a few actors taking action behind closed doors in response to non-public reports, we will be far short of that standard.
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The Lesson of the Iran War May Be Staying Power, Not Firepower
Any assessment of the war between the United States and Iran must come to grips with two seemingly contradictory observations. The US definitely secured a military win and the Iranian regime perhaps emerged strategically stronger. Is the world both better off and worse off? Definitely maybe.
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Was It Worth It? The True Cost of Trump’s Iran War
The war ended with a deal that gives Iran sanctions relief, reconstruction funds, and the ability to charge tolls on the world’s most critical waterway. While the White House may call it a victory, the costs suggest otherwise.
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The Paranoid Style in American Oversight, Part I
Senator Grassley’s account of how and why the FBI investigated Trump’s role in the false electors plot is a feat of political conspiracy.
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Trump’s U.S.‑Iran Ceasefire Deal Is a Costly Return to Prewar Conditions – and Resolving Nuclear Questions Will Run into the ‘Indivisibility Problem’
The Iran war was always likely to end not in a clean settlement but in a series of contested pauses. The deal to be signed on June 19 is the first of them. Iran emerges with its enrichment knowledge intact, its stockpile buried and fresh reason to believe that only a nuclear weapon would have deterred the U.S.-Israel attack.
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The Complications That China’s Build-Up Brings to Nuclear Balance
Any talks between the U.S. and Russia over renewing the expired nuclear arms agreement must soon include China as a nuclear superpower. Other aspects of the global nuclear arms landscape are not getting any simpler, either.
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Before SpaceX IPO, Investors in China Secretly Acquired Stakes
A businessman with ties to Chinese military contractors was among the overseas investors who acquired stakes in SpaceX while it was still a private company. SpaceX built its business off sensitive U.S. government work like making spy satellites for the Pentagon, so it is important to know which people in countries like China bought into the company, and how.
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The Last Check: Magistrate Judges and Federal Seizures of Election Records
DOJ has taken series of highly unusual steps by historical DOJ standards which may preview what is to come as the midterms approach. For the first time, the country faces the possibility that the DOJ may attempt to take over polling places, seize ballots during an election, or threaten to prosecute voters or election officials to interfere in the administration of an election.
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Why Anthropic Is Sounding the Alarm on the Next Generation of AI
Anthropic is urging its rivals to pursue an unprecedented regime of AI arms control. The explosive advances in the company’s technology illustrate why that effort may be imperative even as it will be difficult to achieve.
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Conflicts Between States Highest Level Since World War II
A new report documents eight interstate conflicts in 2025 – twice as many as the previous year and the highest number recorded since 1946.
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Presidential Discretion and the Insurrection Act
The Supreme Court, in Trump v. Illinois, further diminished the president’s ability to use § 12406 to federalize the National Guard in order to directly interfere in domestic activities in pursuit of his most controversial policies. With § 12406 now unavailable, the likelihood of the current president resorting to the Insurrection Act, the statute affording him the most oppressive domestic suppression capabilities, has only increased.
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The Continuing Saga of Chief Judge Boasberg’s Contempt of Court Inquiry Involving Todd Blanche and Emil Bove
Courts increasingly are expressing concern about the litigation conduct of the Trump administration’s Department of Justice attorneys. Courts have become reluctant to apply the “presumption of regularity” to Executive Branch actions, and many judges have often pointedly questioned the reliability and candor of DOJ’s written and oral representations. The result is that DOJ is in danger of seriously damaging its historic reputation for integrity, professionalism, and political independence in federal court litigation.
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Estimating the Effects on the UK of State Information, Influence, and Interference Threats Using Digital Disinformation, Distortion, and Deception
There is no adequate methodology or framework for estimating the impacts and effects of foreign state information, influence, and interference effects on the UK. Without such a framework it is difficult for decision-makers to prioritize which events and incidents require responding to because of the harms they are causing.
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FISA Section 702 Lapsed on Friday—What Now?
Congress was asked to extend, without a warrant requirement, a surveillance program whose compliance record cannot be independently verified, whose oversight bodies have been deliberately disabled, and whose custodians have shown a personal willingness to turn its tools on the press. The program did not go dark on Friday. The real question is whether the House and Senate leadership will finally tell Trump that embracing the Fourth Amendment’s warrant requirement is the only way to end this saga.
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The long view
Conflicts Between States Highest Level Since World War II
A new report documents eight interstate conflicts in 2025 – twice as many as the previous year and the highest number recorded since 1946.
Will Generative AI Fundamentally Change Terrorist Threats?
Does generative artificial intelligence (Gen AI) represent a genuine transformation in terrorist capability, or are its risks being overstated within contemporary security discourse? Gen AI tools, particularly large language models, can improve the efficiency, accessibility, and scale of certain terrorist activities, but there remains limited evidence that they fundamentally alter the nature of terrorism or significantly enhance operational capability.
The Paranoid Style in American Oversight, Part I
Senator Grassley’s account of how and why the FBI investigated Trump’s role in the false electors plot is a feat of political conspiracy.
The Paranoid Style in American Oversight, Part II
The criticism of the techniques used in the FBI’s investigation of the false electors plot, much like the critiques of how it was opened, do not bear scrutiny. The days of the FBI trying to speak only through indictments are apparently over, and Director Kash Patel’s willingness to endlessly provide piecemeal documents, without any explanation, annotation, or context to the bureau’s most vituperative critics is just one more sign not that a page has merely been turned, but that it has been ripped out of the book entirely and burned to cinders.
Presidential Discretion and the Insurrection Act
The Supreme Court, in Trump v. Illinois, further diminished the president’s ability to use § 12406 to federalize the National Guard in order to directly interfere in domestic activities in pursuit of his most controversial policies. With § 12406 now unavailable, the likelihood of the current president resorting to the Insurrection Act, the statute affording him the most oppressive domestic suppression capabilities, has only increased.
More States Restrict 3D-Printed Firearms
For decades, making an untraceable firearm required specialized tools, technical expertise and hours of work. Today, it can start with a downloaded file and a consumer-grade 3D printer. At least six states this year have outlawed or imposed regulations on such guns.