• A Proxy War in Ukraine Is the Worst Possible Outcome – Except for All the Others

    The United States and its European allies clearly said that they will not fight a war against Russia in Ukraine. Sam Winter-Levy writes that these statements obscured an important truth: The United States and its allies are already in the midst of a full-blown proxy war with Russia. “Western policymakers should not deceive themselves about just how ugly proxy wars tend to be… Ultimately, the only options worse than a proxy war are a cheap Russian victory in Ukraine — or a direct confrontation between Russia and the United States.

  • Russia-Ukraine War Splits Germany's Far-Right

    The Russian invasion of Ukraine has left Germany’s neo-Nazis confused: Should they support the authoritarian Russian leader or far-right nationalists fighting on the Ukrainian side?

  • Jihadists, Far-Right Extremists Vex Russia–Ukraine War

    Jihadist militants from Chechnya have been helping Russia in its war in Ukraine, but the influx of jihadist militants does not constitute the bulk of foreign fighters who have joined the war. It is feared that the pro-Ukraine ‘International Legion’ is infiltrated by far-right extremist groups who support Ukraine’s own far-right organizations. One expert warns that the war “will almost certainly attract far-right extremists, who have long viewed [Ukraine] as an ideal training ground to gain combat experience for the eventual ‘race wars’ they anticipate waging back home.”

  • Western Officials: Russia's Failures in Ukraine May Make Putin More Dangerous

    New intelligence estimates suggest that up to 20 percent of Russian troops sent into Ukraine have been killed, wounded or captured as Ukraine fights Moscow to a near standstill. Senior Western officials are increasingly alarmed that Russia’s losses in Ukraine are making President Vladimir Putin more dangerous, some going as far as to compare him to a caged animal ready to lash out.

  • Russia’s Remaining Weapons Are Horrific and Confounding

    Along with concerns over the possible deployment of tactical nuclear weapons, the Biden administration is now warning that the Russian military may launch a chemical weapons attack in Ukraine. Harvard Kennedy School’s Matthew Bunn assesses threat, possible fallout of chemical attack in Ukraine, including the excruciating choices Biden and NATO would face.

  • Europe After the Ukraine War

    The war in Ukraine is still raging, and its outcome not yet certain, but there is no doubt that the war, in Ralph Cohen’s words, is “a watershed historical event.” He highlights four macro-levels trends which are upending the strategic balance in Europe. Russia will likely emerge weaker but, perhaps, no less dangerous, but Europe will likely become stronger militarily, less energy dependent, and more unified against Russia.

  • Cornell University: Chinese Students Walk Out after Uyghur Student Asks About Genocide

    The campus of Cornell University offered a demonstration of the divide between Chinese authorities and the nation’s Uyghur minority, when Chinese students staged a walkout after an Uyghur student asked a speaker – Rep. Elissa Slotkin of Michigan – about the treatmewnt of the Uyghurs by the Chinese government.

  • What Are the Chances of a Kremlin Coup?

    Russia experts are divided over the question of whether Vladimir Putin is facing a genuine risk to his power. A minority view is emerging among some Kremlin watchers that Russian leader Vladimir Putin’s days are numbered. Other seasoned Kremlin watchers are not yet persuaded Putin is at any immediate risk.

  • History Never Ended: Ukraine and the Risk of Nuclear Escalation

    Putin has issued implicit and explicit nuclear threats, and has also raised the specter of chemical weapons. Together, these threats imply that Putin may seek deliberate escalation in order to limit NATO’s options. Putin’s assumption may be that the West won’t be prepared to risk escalation to a strategic nuclear exchange and will back down even in the face of a demonstrative use of a low-yield nuclear weapon, or large-scale use of chemical weapons against urban areas in Ukraine.

  • The Smaller Bombs That Could Turn Ukraine into a Nuclear War Zone

    The nuclear weapons in the arsenals of Russia and NATO countries have much smaller yields than the large bombs built during the Cold War. These warheads are even smaller than the bombs dropped on Hiroshima and Nagasaki. William Broad writes that it is this much lower yield which makes their use more thinkable.

  • The False Promise of Arming Insurgents: America’s Spotty Record Warrants Caution in Ukraine

    Covertly coming to the aid of Ukrainian insurgents may appear to be the prudent choice for U.S. policymakers facing an array of unattractive options, but history suggests that this would be a risky gamble. The United States has a “remarkably poor” record for covertly backing insurgencies: “of 35 U.S. attempts to covertly arm foreign dissidents during the Cold War, only four succeeded in bringing U.S. allies to power,” Lindsey O’Rourke writes.

  • Ukraine Offers Lessons for Russia’s 2024 Election Interference

    For all the media attention on the domestic political dimensions, the Kremlin’s interference in the 2016 and 2020 presidential elections (and the 2018 midterms) included a significant focus on shaping U.S. policy toward Ukraine. Exerting influence on U.S. Ukraine policy Ukraine has long been a goal of Russian disinformation efforts, so American policymakers must prepare now for this influence effort to reemerge in 2024.

  • Can Russia Be Held Accountable for War Crimes in Ukraine?

    U.S. President Joe Biden has called Russian President Vladimir Putin a war criminal for the actions of Russian forces in Ukraine. Could Russian leaders be brought to justice under international law?

  • No Letup in Russian Influence Operations

    Moscow’s efforts to win over the world with its accounts of events in Ukraine are doing no better than Russia’s military forces inside Ukraine. More often than not, they are meeting with stiff resistance.

  • The Information War – How to Deal with Fake News and Misinformation

    Over the past few weeks, we have seen a growth in the use of the term ‘Information War’. The term, at first glance, would appear to be fairly innocuous: I mean, how hurtful or harmful could information actually be? However, as the conflict in Ukraine continues, we have seen the use of information take on a more powerful, weaponized status. We can help stop the spread of misinformation.