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Putin’s Inner Circle Stands Firm, So Far
“Usually authoritarian regimes don’t end through mass protest but through fragmentation of the elite and, until now, we’ve seen none of that. The political elites seem to be holding together, but the fact that these two oligarchs[Mikhail Fridman and Oleg Deripaska] have come out against the party line is quite important,” says Harvard’s Alexandra Vacroux.
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Why Putin’s War with Ukraine Is a Miscalculation
Putin’s invasion of Ukraine is a geopolitical earthquake that will cause repercussions far beyond Europe. But the Russian president might be planting the seeds for the demise of his regime by overreaching.
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Which is the Bigger Threat: Offline or Online Radicalization?
The Global Network on Extremism Technology (GNET) has just released a report which seeks answers to these questions: Are those radicalized offline or online more of a threat? Which group is harder to detect, more successful in completing attacks, and more lethal when they do so? Is the pattern different for youth versus older perpetrators and for men versus women?
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The U.S. Digital Security Challenges: Q&A with Frederic Lemieux
The U.S. is facing many digital challenges: Ransomware attacks; critical infrastructure vulnerability; exploitation of flaws in widely used software packages such as SolarWinds; potential Russian cyberattacks resulting from the Ukraine crisis; shortage of cybersecurity talent which leaves many government and private sector positions vacant; and many more. HSNW talked with Georgetown’s Professor Frederic Lemieux, a recognized expert in the fields of global threats and homeland security.
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U.K. Unveils Game Plan for “Living with COVID”
In an address to the House of Commons Monday, Britain’s Prime Minister Boris Johnson announced a plan for “living with COVID,” phasing out free testing for most people and removing requirements to self-isolate after testing positive.
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Not a Suicide Pact: Urgent Strategic Recommendations for Reducing Domestic Terrorism in the United States
America’s Bill of Rights protects U.S. citizens’ rights to free speech, to bear arms, and to be free from unreasonable searches and seizures, among other things. As the Supreme Court has consistently held, however, no right is absolute: All rights must be balanced against other societal needs, including and especially public safety. Barbara L. McQuade writes that as the threat of domestic terrorism metastasizes in the United States, Americans need to use the practical wisdom urged by Justice Robert L. Jackson – who, in 1949, advised that the Constitution is not “a suicide pact” — to ensure the survival of the republic.
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Ukraine: What Would a Russian Invasion Actually Look Like? These Are the Three Most Likely Scenarios
Russia has been laying the ground for military action against Ukraine since 2014, when it seized Crimea and thereby gained a more substantial military foothold to the south. Meanwhile, the ongoing war in Ukraine’s Donbas region allowed Russian security and intelligence units to continue to gauge Ukrainian military and paramilitary operations. If military action does occur, there are three likely scenarios for how it would play out.
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Russia Planning Post-Invasion Arrest and Assassination Campaign in Ukraine: U.S. Officials
Russia has prepared a detailed list of prominent Ukrainian opponents of Russia ad anti-corruption activists, and of Belarusian and Russian dissidents living in exile in Ukraine, who would be hunted down and killed by Russian special forces should Russia move forward with plans to invade Ukraine.
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Addressing the Challenges to U.S.-Russia Strategic Stability
What are the origins of the current divergence in U.S. and Russian threat perceptions regarding preemption? What are the practical consequences of Russia’s threat perceptions for U.S. interests? Could changes to current policies address Russian concerns while delivering the benefits afforded the United States by the status quo? A new RAND study offers answers to these questions.
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New Cybersecurity Advisory: Protecting Cleared Defense Contractor Networks Against Russian Hackers
Over the last two years, CISA, FBI and NSA continue observing regular targeting of both large and small Cleared Defense Contractors and subcontractors. Agencies strongly encourage organizations to apply recommended mitigation steps to reduce risk of compromise.
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Possible Russian Cyberattacks Could Reverberate Globally: U.S., Allies
The United States and its Western allies are bracing for the possibility that a Russian invasion of Ukraine would have a ripple effect in cyberspace, even if Western entities are not initially the intended target.
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The Three Leading Cyber Risks: Misinformation, Disinformation, and Fake News
The risks associated with misleading information can have a profoundly negative impact. A study aims to provide recommendations on responding to the new digital age challenges.
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Franco A.: A German Right-Wing Extremist Soldier's Double Life
All eyes are on Frankfurt, on the trial of Franco A. a Bundeswehr soldier accused of plotting a terrorist attack while posing as a Syrian refugee. This week, he was taken into custody over fresh evidence.
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New Cybersecurity Advisory: Protecting Cleared Defense Contractor Networks Against Russian Hackers
Over the last two years, CISA, FBI and NSA continue observing regular targeting of both large and small Cleared Defense Contractors and subcontractors. Agencies strongly encourage organizations to apply recommended mitigation steps to reduce risk of compromise.
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COVID Tests May Leak Personal Data
In Sweden, when you take a PCR test to have a certificate issued – and last year, 14 million PCR tests were performed — your personal data are handled by private companies. Researchers have discovered a critical security weakness at such a company that handles these certificates in all major cities in Sweden.
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More headlines
The long view
Factories First: Winning the Drone War Before It Starts
Wars are won by factories before they are won on the battlefield,Martin C. Feldmann writes, noting that the United States lacks the manufacturing depth for the coming drone age. Rectifying this situation “will take far more than procurement tweaks,” Feldmann writes. “It demands a national-level, wartime-scale industrial mobilization.”
No Nation Is an Island: The Dangers of Modern U.S. Isolationism
The resurgence of isolationist sentiment in American politics is understandable but misguided. While the desire to refocus on domestic renewal is justified, retreating from the world will not bring the security, prosperity, or sovereignty that its proponents promise. On the contrary, it invites instability, diminishes U.S. influence, and erodes the democratic order the U.S. helped forge.
Fragmented by Design: USAID’s Dismantling and the Future of American Foreign Aid
The Trump administration launched an aggressive restructuring of U.S. foreign aid, effectively dismantling the United States Agency for International Development (USAID). The humanitarian and geopolitical fallout of the demise of USAID includes shuttered clinics, destroyed food aid, and China’s growing influence in the global south. This new era of American soft power will determine how, and whether, the U.S. continues to lead in global development.
Water Wars: A Historic Agreement Between Mexico and US Is Ramping Up Border Tension
As climate change drives rising temperatures and changes in rainfall, Mexico and the US are in the middle of a conflict over water, putting an additional strain on their relationship. Partly due to constant droughts, Mexico has struggled to maintain its water deliveries for much of the last 25 years, deliveries to which it is obligated by a 1944 water-sharing agreement between the two countries.
How Disastrous Was the Trump-Putin Meeting?
In Alaska, Trump got played by Putin. Therefore, Steven Pifer writes, the European leaders and Zelensky have to “diplomatically offer suggestions to walk Trump back from a position that he does not appear to understand would be bad for Ukraine, bad for Europe, and bad for American interests. And they have to do so without setting off an explosion that could disrupt U.S.-Ukrainian and U.S.-European relations—all to the delight of Putin and the Kremlin.”
How Male Grievance Fuels Radicalization and Extremist Violence
Social extremism is evolving in reach and form. While traditional racial supremacy ideologies remain, contemporary movements are now often fueled by something more personal and emotionally resonant: male grievance.