• Think Global, Act Local: Reconfiguring Siege Culture

    It is not an easy time to be in a branded neo-Nazi group. Some groups have dissolved themselves, other groups have been proscribed by different governments, while group members of some groups have been arrested for a variety of offenses across the U.S., U.K., Germany, Australia, New Zealand, and other countries. Societal attitudes towards the broader extreme-right are hardening, and for the most extreme right-wingers, the future may be less digital, more local, and harder to police.

  • Australia Bans Far-Right Extremist Sonnenkrieg Division

    Australia has designated the right-wing extremist group Sonnenkrieg Division as a terrorist organization. The ruling allows authorities to imprison members of the U.K.-based neo-Nazi group. The Sonnenkrieg Division (SKD) became the first far-right organization to be listed as a terror group in Australia on Monday.

  • Covert Action, Espionage, and the Intelligence Contest in Cyberspace

    In recent months, the world learned that China carried out an indiscriminate hack against Microsoft Exchange, while Russia hacked U.S. information technology firm SolarWinds and used cyber capabilities in an attempt to influence the 2020 U.S. presidential election. Michael Poznansky writes that the attacks raise important questions about how best to characterize these and other kinds of disruptive cyber events. Cyber-enabled espionage and covert cyber operations both qualify as intelligence activities, but they are also distinct in key ways from one another. “Failing to appreciate these differences impedes our ability to understand the richness of cyber operations, underlying motivations, the prospect for signaling, and metrics of success,” he writes.

  • Why Certain Lifestyles and Interests May Have Influenced COVID-19 Decision-Making More than Others

    Although little studied, U.K. cabinet members’ lived experiences and interests likely impact the decisions they make. Certain such experiences have probably been better represented in COVID-19 decisions than others due to the profile of prominent politicians. 

  • A Dozen Experts with Questions Congress Should Ask the Tech CEOs — On Disinformation and Extremism

    On Thursday, 25 March, two subcomittees of the House Energy & Commerce Committee will hold a joint hearing on “the misinformation and disinformation plaguing online platforms. Yaël Eisenstat and Justin Hendrix write that Thursday hearings will be the first time the tech CEOs will face Congress since the January 6th siege on the U.S. Capitol, where different groups of individuals sought to prevent the certification of the presidential election because they were led by Donald Trump to believe in the lie that the election was stolen. “Should social media companies continue their pattern of negligence, governments must use every power – including new legislation, fines and criminal prosecutions – to stop the harms being created,” says one expert. “Lies cost lives.”

  • Fake News: People with Greater Emotional Intelligence Are Better at Spotting Misinformation

    The spread of misinformation – in the form of unsubstantiated rumor and intentionally deceitful propaganda – is nothing new. However, the global proliferation of social media, the 24-hour news cycle and consumers’ ravenous desire for news – immediately and in bite-size chunks – means that today, misinformation is more abundant and accessible than ever. But our new study shows fake news doesn’t affect everyone equally. People with greater emotional intelligence are better at spotting it.

  • Iran Begins Uranium Enrichment with More Advanced Centrifuges

    Iran has begun enriching uranium at its underground Natanz plant using a cascade of advanced centrifuges, the latest breach of a 2015 nuclear deal with world powers. The use of the advanced centrifuges is the latest violation of the nuclear accord, which only allows slower first-generation IR-1 centrifuges for enrichment.

  • Water Wars Are Here

    In 2009, the U.K. intelligence services submitted their annual intelligence report to then-Prime Minister Gordon Brown, warning of the coming threat of “water wars” between states vying for diminishing fresh-water resources. Rising water-related tensions between India and Pakistan and between Ethiopia and its neighbors bear out the report’s warnings. The recent decision by Turkey to use its dam system to limit the amount of water flowing into Syria is a demonstration of using the control over water sources for exerting pressure on neighboring states.

  • Kurds in Northern Syria Warn of Water Crisis

    Turkey has reduced the volume of water flowing downstream toward Syria, and the first to feel the pinch are the Kurds in Syria’s Kurdish region. In the last decade. Turkey has built twenty-two dams in southeast Anatolia, leading to fears in Syria and Iraq that Turkey was going to use its control over the sources of the Tigris and the Euphrates to apply political pressure on both countries.

  • U.S. Officials Reject Claims Terrorists Trying to Enter from Mexico

    U.S. homeland security officials are pushing back against claims that known and suspected terrorists are trying to sneak into the country from Mexico, calling such incidents “very uncommon.” The U.S.-based news site Axios, citing a congressional aide briefed on correspondence from CBP, reported late Tuesday that, since October 2020, four people on the FBI’s terror watchlist were caught trying to enter the U.S. from the southern border — including three people from Yemen and one from Serbia.

  • Extremism in the U.S. Military: Problems and Solutions

    Extremist movements pose many problems to society, from spreading hate and intolerance to engaging in significant and deadly violence.  It is particularly problematic when adherents of extreme causes are able to persist in key institutions dedicated to protecting the people of the United States, institutions such as emergency response units, law enforcement and the military.

  • Paperwork Failures Worsened Texas Blackouts, Sparking Mid-Storm Scramble to Restore Critical Fuel Supply

    Dozens of natural gas companies failed to do the paperwork that would keep their facilities powered during an emergency, so utilities cut their electricity at the very moment that power plants most needed fuel. The mid-storm scramble to fix the problem exposed a regulatory blind spot.

  • Russia, Iran Meddled in November's Election; China Did Not: U.S. Intelligence

    A just-released assessment by U.S. intelligence officials finds Russia and Iran did seek to influence the outcome of the November 2020 presidential election. But the assessment also concludes that, despite repeated warnings by a number of top Trump officials, China ultimately decided to sit it out. In the run-up to the November election, President Donald Trump, DNI John Ratcliffe, NSC Adviser Robert O’Brien, and AG William Barr. Among other Trump supporters, argued the Chinese interference in the election posed as much of a threat to the election as Russian interference, with Barr arguing that China posed an even greater threat. The intelligence community’s unanimous conclusions that “China did not deploy interference efforts and considered but did not deploy influence efforts intended to change the outcome of the U.S. Presidential election,” will likely lead to new questions about how the intelligence was presented to the public.

  • Racially Motivated Violent Extremists Pose Most Lethal Domestic Threat: U.S. Intelligence

    Domestic violent extremists pose the most serious threat to public safety, says the unclassified summary of an intelligence community report released Wednesday. The intelligence report, echoing academic studies, stressed that white supremacists – to which the report also refers as “racially or ethnically motivated violent extremists” — and militia extremists pose the most lethal threat among domestic extremists. In addition to racial and ethnic hatred, domestic extremists are motivated by the false “narrative of fraud” in the 2020 presidential election; the Jan. 6 attack on the Capitol; Covid-19 restrictions; and conspiracy theories. The report found that extremists motivated by biases against minorities and “perceived government overreach” will continue to drive radicalization and violent mobilization. The report was prepared by the Department of Justice, Department of Homeland Security, and the Office of the Director of National Intelligence.

  • The German Far Right Doesn’t Need to Win Elections to Be Dangerous

    On March 3, Germany’s domestic intelligence agency placed the far-right party Alternative for Germany (AfD) under observation as a suspected far-right extremist organization. “The challenge posed by the German far right goes beyond the AfD, Sam Denney writes. “the AfD’s relative success and the growth of increasingly vocal far-right street movements is concerning enough. More ominous still, though, is the fact that significant numbers of far-right extremists have been uncovered in Germany’s security services.”