DronesCan Drone Warfare in the Middle East Be Controlled?
Drone attacks are causing a crisis in the Mideast and experts are calling for a better regulatory regime. The drone attacks are part of a worrisome trend in the region: The escalating use of UAVs, both for surveillance purposes and to attack opponents, by countries in the region — but also by nonstate actors there, like militia groups in Iraq, Yemen and Syria, among others. But would more rules even have an impact in the region?
Three weeks ago, the US launched airstrikes against militant groups loyal to Iran near the Iraqi-Syrian border. According to a statement issued by United States defense officials, the strikes were in retaliation for the groups’ drone attacks on American troops in Iraq.
The US military said that drones, also known as Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (or UAVs), have been used against their personnel at least five times since April. In the most recent attacks, an armed drone was detonated at a dining area used by Americans inside Baghdad’s airport. Another damaged an American hangar in northern Iraq.
The drone attacks are part of a disturbing trend in the region: The escalating use of UAVs, both for surveillance purposes and to attack opponents, by countries in the region — but also by nonstate actors there, like militia groups in Iraq, Yemen and Syria, among others.
Political Pressure by Drone
Research by the Milan-based Institute for International Political Studies (ISPI) suggests that Middle Eastern nations (excluding Israel) spent at least $1.5 billion (€1.27 billion) on military drones over the last five years.
Of all nations in this area, Israel is probably the most advanced drone-maker. But the country tends not to pass on its technology to those it considers potential enemies. Turkey, Iran, the United Arab Emirates and China are other major suppliers of drones in the region.
Iran has one of the longest-running drone programs, ISPI researcher Frederico Borsari explains. Hampered by international sanctions and lacking a modern air force, Iran has long understood that drones, supplied to allies elsewhere, could add to their air power and give them “plausible deniability,” Borsari said.
Drones are likely being used by Iraqi militias against the US, or by the anti-government Houthis in Yemen against Saudi Arabia, yet experts agree it’s highly likely the technical know-how comes from neighboring Iran. At the same time, Iran can deny it had anything to do with it.
“From Tehran’s point of view, this is an advantage,” Borsari told DW. “The drones in their hands can be used to exert political pressure.”
Superior Air Power
The proliferation of drones in the Middle East is “dangerous because it alters military hierarchies in the region,” explained Fabian Hinz, an independent Middle East analyst based in Berlin, who focuses on drones and ballistic missiles. “Previously, you predict the outcome of any conflict. As in, this country has so many planes and this much training, so you could estimate how strong they were. Drones and ballistic missiles shake all that up.”
