Bulgaria attackBulgaria bus bombing underscores vulnerability of public transport: MTI experts

Research reports published by the Mineta Transportation Institute (MTI) have underscored the fact that public transportation is still a seriously vulnerable target for terrorism. MTI says that this was validated by yesterday’s bombing of a Bulgarian bus filled with Israeli tourists who had just arrived at the airport.

“Tourists move through airports safely because of all the strict measures in place,” said Brian Michael Jenkins, international terrorism expert and director of MTI’s National Transportation Security Center of Excellence. “But this attack took place on a bus chartered for a hotel. Although most attacks are directed against regularly scheduled bus lines, attacks on these chartered tour buses enable terrorists to target specific foreign nationalities – in this case, Israelis.”

Earlier this month, in testimony before the U.S. Senate, Jenkins noted that, while terrorists apparently consider airliners to be their gold medal target, public service transportation offers easier access and a concentration of people in confined environments.

In the same testimony, he pointed to the resurgence of Iranian-sponsored attacks. This particular attack has not yet been officially tied to any nation, but some speculation points to Iran as the origin. “We have seen similar plots uncovered in Azerbaijan, Georgia, India, Kenya, Cyprus, and Thailand,” Jenkins said.

MTI notes that one of its research reports, published earlier this year, presents sixteen case studies of attacks against Israeli bus targets between 2000 and 2005, along with detailed statistical data. Security Awareness for Public Bus Security: Case Studies of Suicide Attacks Against the Israeli Public Bus System could help increase understanding of what can happen and of what can deter, prevent, or mitigate terrorist attacks against bus transit. Jenkins. The 104-page report is available for free download from MTI Web site.

The second report, Terrorist Attacks on Public Bus Transportation: A Preliminary Empirical Analysis, covers attacks on buses, bus stations, and bus stops. It includes data about how often buses are attacked relative to other surface transportation targets, first with all weapons and then with only explosive and incendiary devices; the relative lethality of bus attacks; and the distribution of those attacks.

MTI’s proprietary Database on Terrorist and Serious Criminal Attacks Against Public Surface Transportation records 3,159 attacks against public surface transportation between January 1970 and January 2012, in which 7,997 people were killed and 30,046 were injured. Of these attacks, 47.4 percent were against buses, bus stations, and bus stops; they accounted for 55 percent of the fatalities and 41 percent of the injuries resulting from terrorist attacks during this period.

Between January and July 2012, approximately 85 additional attacks have occurred against surface transportation systems, which have created approximately 1,319 casualties, 419 fatalities, and 900 injuries. In this period, there has been a high volume of bus attacks, accounting for upwards of 53 percent of the attacks. MTI continuously documents and updates emergent activity for assessment.

This database is developed from existing lists and media accounts, augmented by local sources, providing detailed information on targets, attack methods, and the ways in which bombs and incendiaries are placed to kill passengers on public trains and buses and to destroy transportation infrastructure. It aims to help government policy makers and transportation managers develop more secure systems by understanding not only what and how terrorists most often attack, but more important, which of their attacks are most deadly, and where their “return on investment” is greatest.

“The United States, like many other developed countries, has not experienced successful terrorist attacks against public bus transportation,” said Jenkins. “It may be that terrorists in the U.S. are not as capable or determined as those in other countries, their plots may have been interrupted by police and intelligence officials, they may not have chosen bus targets for lethal attacks, or they may not have focused extensively on public surface transportation.”

He said that Israel faces, and has faced, a host of determined, constantly improving terrorist foes who have benefited from a relatively fast tempo of operations and a restive populace apparently willing to provide bombers and material support.