AfghanistanAfghanistan Withdrawal Could Pose ‘Significant Risk’ to U.S.: Intelligence Officials

By Jeff Seldin

Published 15 April 2021

The plan to pull troops from Afghanistan could give terrorist groups like al-Qaida and Islamic State a chance to regenerate the capabilities they would need to carry out an attack against the United States, according to top U.S. intelligence officials.

The plan to pull troops from Afghanistan could give terrorist groups like al-Qaida and Islamic State a chance to regenerate the capabilities they would need to carry out an attack against the United States, according to top U.S. intelligence officials.

Their warning, coming the same day U.S. President Joe Biden formally announced his decision to end America’s longest-running war, touches on the deep-rooted concerns many current and former U.S. officials have voiced about pulling 2,500 to 3,500 troops from Afghanistan, along with thousands of trainers and contractors.

It also may serve to fuel further criticism of the withdrawal, with critics seizing on fears that the conditions that allowed Afghanistan to become a haven for terrorists could soon return, despite nearly two decades of fighting.

There is a significant risk once the U.S. military and the coalition militaries withdraw,” Bill Burns, recently confirmed director of the CIA, told lawmakers Wednesday.

“The U.S. government’s ability to collect and act on threats will diminish. That’s simply a fact,” he said, cautioning that al-Qaida and IS in Afghanistan “remain intent on recovering the ability to attack U.S. targets, whether it’s in the region, in the West or ultimately in the homeland.”

But the stark warning was accompanied by a plea for lawmakers to be “clear-eyed.”

No matter how much al-Qaida and IS may want to strike the U.S., Burns said, “the reality is that neither of them have that capacity today.”

Other top intelligence officials also made the case that the terror threat that caused the U.S. to go to war in Afghanistan in the first place is no longer the preeminent danger it was.

“There are terrorist groups, whether it’s al-Qaida in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP), in other parts of the world, who represent much more serious threats,” Burns said. 

Director of National Intelligence Avril Haines told lawmakers the danger posed by Afghanistan has also been eclipsed by threats from countries such as China — which she called an “unparalleled priority” — as well as Russia, Iran and North Korea.

Even domestic extremists from a “broad range of ideological motivations pose a greater immediate threat,” Haines said.

Lawmakers, however, like Marco Rubio, lead Republican on the Senate Intelligence Committee, voiced concern.

“There’s a very real possibility in the very near future, sadly, tragically and in a heartbreaking way, the Taliban will regain control of all or substantial portions of Afghanistan,” he said.