Taliban Advances in Afghanistan Give Kashmir Militants a Boost
Speaking at a webinar organized by the Global Counter Terrorism Council on July 2, India’s army chief, Manoj Mukund Naravane, said there was a “marked improvement” in the situation in Kashmir after the cease-fire agreement, particularly with regard to armed militancy.
“There has been little or no infiltration from across the Line of Control, and the number of militancy-related incidents in the (Kashmir) Valley has also seen a considerable decline,” he said.
The army chief also spoke about the situation along the Line of Actual Control in eastern Ladakh, where Chinese and Indian troops have been locked in a standoff since May 2020. Naravane described the situation there as “normal.”
Experts, however, believe that the sense of normalcy could rapidly change following US troops’ withdrawal from Afghanistan.
Akanksha Narain, an expert at the Control Risks security consultancy in New Delhi, told DW that Afghanistan could face a similar situation after the withdrawal of NATO troops to what it faced when Soviet forces departed in 1988-89.
“Mujahideen fighters until 1989 fought against the Soviet troops, then dispersed to other theaters, from Chechnya and Kashmir to the Middle East,” Narain said.
“A similar situation will arise where many fighters, particularly foreign fighters, might pivot to new theaters or return to previously active theaters. This poses a threat for India and Kashmir,” she added.
A Lot Has Changed Since 1989
After the withdrawal of the Soviet troops from Afghanistan in the late 1980s, an anti-India armed insurgency erupted in India-administered Kashmir. While New Delhi blames Pakistan for supporting the armed groups, Islamabad denies the accusations saying that the militancy in Kashmir is indigenous.
Nevertheless, a lot has changed in India-administered Kashmir since 1989.
Top police officers in the region claim that militancy is on the wane and that armed fighters are on the run.
Authorities have also developed expertise in handling the insurgency over the last three decades.
“In the 1990s, India had no prior experience in tackling the militancy that the government encountered in Kashmir. But 2021 is a slightly different story. The Indian state already has three decades of experience in counter-insurgency in the region,” Narain said.
Rahul Bedi, another security expert, shares a similar view.
“In the 1990s, the Indian military, paramilitary and Jammu and Kashmir Police were completely taken by surprise. Three decades later, the Indian army and local police have built a robust security grid and intelligence network,” Bedi told DW. “India is now better prepared and will be able to deal with the challenges that Pakistan might throw.”
“Let us face it,” Bedi said. “The Taliban have not given up on the idea of the Caliphate from Afghanistan to the European border. Despite the cease-fire agreement at the LoC, Pakistan has not given up on its endeavor in Kashmir. The Taliban is a force multiplier for Pakistan. It is not a question of ‘if,’ but ‘when.’”
Gowhar Geelani writes for DW.This article is published courtesy of Deutsche Welle (DW).
