UKRAINE CRISISWhy Putin’s War with Ukraine Is a Miscalculation

By Charles A. Kupchan

Published 25 February 2022

Putin’s invasion of Ukraine is a geopolitical earthquake that will cause repercussions far beyond Europe. But the Russian president might be planting the seeds for the demise of his regime by overreaching.

Putin’s invasion of Ukraine is a geopolitical earthquake that will cause repercussions far beyond Europe. But the Russian president might be planting the seeds for the demise of his regime by overreaching.

How Significant Is Russia’s Attack on Ukraine?
The Russian invasion of Ukraine is tragic and shocking. It constitutes an unprovoked attack against a sovereign nation. In revealing the aggressive and expansive ambitions of President Vladimir Putin, this invasion will likely bring about the return of a Europe afflicted by militarized division.

Putin launched the invasion despite impressive transatlantic solidarity and his full awareness that the West would respond by imposing severe economic sanctions and substantially reinforcing the eastern flank of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO). Now that he has begun the attack, he is likely to proceed with an effort to topple Volodymyr Zelensky’s government and install a puppet regime in Kyiv under the thumb of Moscow.

Do the Threats Go Beyond Ukraine? 
The invasion will have geopolitical effects well beyond Ukraine. Depending upon how far into western Ukraine Russian forces go, a sizable number of Ukrainians could try to flee the country across its western border. NATO and the European Union (EU) should prepare accordingly.

Putin has of late talked about not just pulling Ukraine back into the Russian fold, but also getting NATO to withdraw forces from its new member countries in Central Europe (thereby undoing the European security architecture built since the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991). His readiness to invade Ukraine indicates a recklessness that could manifest itself in military action elsewhere. He could even test NATO by threatening a member state. Four NATO members—Hungary, Poland, Romania, and Slovakia—border Ukraine; they could face new vulnerabilities. Putin also might flex Russia’s muscles in the Baltic region. NATO members therefore need to take prudent and expeditious steps to reinforce the alliance’s eastern flank by dispatching more air, land, and naval assets to the region. They should also prepare the NATO Response Force to react quickly to Russian threats.