ENERGY SECURITYCan Nuclear Generation Help Reduce European Reliance on Russian Gas?

By Anne-Sophie Corbeau

Published 7 April 2022

Following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the International Energy Agency and the European Commission have come up with plans to rapidly reduce the European Union’s imports of Russian natural gas. While the International Energy Agency anticipates that EU nuclear generation could increase by 20 terawatt hours (TWh) (or 2.7 percent) in 2022, the European Commission only mentions nuclear as a potential source of hydrogen.

Following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the International Energy Agency and the European Commission have come up with plans to rapidly reduce the European Union’s imports of Russian natural gas. While the International Energy Agency anticipates that EU nuclear generation could increase by 20 terawatt hours (TWh) (or 2.7 percent) in 2022, the European Commission only mentions nuclear as a potential source of hydrogen.

Anne-Sophie Corbeau, a global research scholar with the Center on Global Energy Policy, answers questions from State of the Planetabout how nuclear power can help reduce the EU’s gas demand.

State of the Planet: Can nuclear generation help reduce gas demand in Europe in the near term?
Anne-Sophie Corbeau
: Nuclear represents about 25 percent of the EU’s electricity generation. In 2020, nuclear generation amounted to 688 TWh and is estimated to have recovered to around 735 TWh in 2021. However, nuclear generation is expected to drop by an estimated 90 TWh in 2022, and by another 20 TWh in 2023. Lower supplies of electricity from nuclear generation are generally made up for with higher consumption of natural gas.

Falling nuclear production in Europe can be attributed to two factors. The first is that French is down from 360 TWh in 2021; electric utility EDF expects French nuclear generation to range between 295 and 315 TWh in 2022, and between 300 and 330 TWh in 2023. Taking the average of these assessments, this will reduce French generation by about 60 TWh in 2022 and 50 TWh in 2023 against 2021 levels. The lower generation forecasts take into account that a number of French nuclear reactors will be closed for their 10-year inspection or for controls due to suspicions of corrosion.

The second reason is the retirement of around 4 GW of nuclear capacity in Germany in the wake of a decision made after the Fukushima Daiichi accident of 2011. These plants generated about 30 TWh in 2020. Another 6 GW is due to be decommissioned by early 2023. The effects will be mostly felt from 2023 onward. The start of nuclear power plants in Finland, France, and Slovakia over 2022–23 will only partly counterbalance this decline.

It is uncertain that more nuclear generation can come from other operating plants. Most plants outside of France (around 39 GW) operate at high rates (>90 percent), including 25 GW operating at above 96 percent. In contrast, the load factors in France have been low (about 70 percent).