WAR IN UKRAINERussia’s Problems on the Battlefield Stem from Failures at the Top
The blistering Ukrainian advance into Russian-held territory has invited serious questions about the conflict’s conclusion. It is now reasonable to consider the looming possibility of a Russian defeat, not just in terms of their modest objective of consolidating control over the Donbas region, but across the entire conflict. The rigid and inflexible command structure hampering Russian forces on the battlefield can be linked back to both Putin’s coup-proofing efforts and attitudes left over from the nation’s Soviet past.
For authoritarians like the Russian president, Vladimir Putin, the military can serve a number of functions. Not only is it a key aspect of maintaining control and projecting power, but in Putin’s case it has served as a key national resource to plunder for personal wealth and to enrich key allies. Yet while the military is a key pillar that keeps his regime in power, Putin is also conscious of the threat it could pose to his role.
Since taking power, Putin has instituted a range of measures to maintain oversight and control over the Russian state, with the military being no exception. While this approach helps him keep his grip on power, it is not without drawbacks. Indeed, the rigid and inflexible command structure hampering Russian forces on the battlefield can be linked back to both Putin’s coup-proofing efforts and attitudes left over from the nation’s Soviet past.
The blistering Ukrainian advance into Russian-held territory has invited serious questions about the conflict’s conclusion. It is now reasonable to consider the looming possibility of a Russian defeat, not just in terms of their modest objective of consolidating control over the Donbas region, but across the entire conflict.
Even given the widely acknowledged and extensive list of Russian military problems, the pace of the recent Ukrainian counteroffensive might come as a surprise to many. It is particularly telling that Russia has failed to effectively marshal its forces to address the Ukrainian advance. While Russian forces may be able to regroup and offer limited resistance, they will struggle to overcome the trauma that the Ukraine has inflicted on Russia’s command-and-control infrastructure.
At the moment, Russian military leadership is in crisis. The Ukrainian military has managed to overwhelm its forces, not only physically but intellectually as well.
The success of the Kharkiv counteroffensive is rooted in the deception of Russian intelligence that caused them to redeploy their forces at the critical moment. There is talk of Russia falling back to establish a new frontline, though their capacity to coordinate their limited forces into a meaningful barrier is doubtful.
Failure of Leadership
The natural Russian reaction was to fire the man in charge of the region, Lieutenant General Roman Berdnikov, bringing his three-week command to an end. But the problems run deep. Russia’s military is of course under the control of its commander-in-chief, President Vladimir Putin.
