CHINA WATCHWill China Try to Take Taiwan in Xi’s Third Term?
Chinese President Xi Jinping’s success in securing an unprecedented third term this weekend has fueled speculation on whether he will try to forcefully reunify with Taiwan — the self-ruled island seen by Beijing as a part of China — in the next few years. Partly fueling the speculation is that Xi, the strongest leader China has had in years, has often called for achieving China’s “rejuvenation,” which includes reunifying with Taiwan.
Chinese President Xi Jinping’s success in securing an unprecedented third term this weekend has fueled speculation on whether he will try to forcefully reunify with Taiwan — the self-ruled island seen by Beijing as a part of China — in the next few years.
Some analysts speculate that China will try to achieve unification by 2049, the 100th anniversary of the founding of the People’s Republic of China. A U.S. Navy official, meanwhile, has warned that Xi may attempt to take back Taiwan by 2027, the People’s Liberation Army’s (PLA) 100th birthday. And a Taiwanese official this week said Beijing could coerce Taiwan into accepting unfavorable terms for unification as early as next year.
Partly fueling the speculation is that Xi, the strongest leader China has had in years, has often called for achieving China’s “rejuvenation,” which includes reunifying with Taiwan.
However, Xi has not mentioned a timeline, at least not publicly. And he offered no clues during his opening speech at the 20th party congress last weekend.
He said the same things he had said before, but emphasized that faced with “gross provocations of external (U.S.) interference in Taiwan affairs,” China will continue to “strive for peaceful reunification with the greatest sincerity and the utmost effort,” but “will never promise to renounce the use of force, and we reserve the option of taking all measures necessary.”
Analysts differ in their assessments of Xi’s intentions.
Chang Wu-yue, director of Taiwan’s Tamkang University Cross-Strait Relations Research Center, says Xi will not try to unify in the next five years because “the cost will be high.”
“Beijing’s current plan is to achieve unification no later than 2049,” Chang said.
By then, Xi would be 96 years old, so it’s unclear whether it’s his plan or China’s plan, or if there’s even a plan.
Simon Chen, a political science professor at National Taiwan University, says there’s a sense of urgency in Xi’s speech.
“In 2019, he said the reunification issue cannot be delayed from one generation to another, but this year, he said unification of the nation must be achieved and can definitely be achieved,” Chen said.
At the end of the party congress Saturday, the Communist Party also approved an amendment to its charter opposing Taiwan independence for the first time.
Tensions between Beijing and Taipei have risen in recent years, further fueling speculation of an impending attack.
