Bolsonaro vs. Lula: What’s at Stake in Brazil’s 2022 Election

Lula’s Workers’ Party, with its roots in the labor union movement, casts itself as a champion of economic and social justice. In particular, Lula has prioritized tackling low growth, inequality, and a worsening hunger crisis. He says if he’s reelected, he will increase direct cash transfers, expand social housing, and introduce a debt forgiveness program. He has also pledged to eliminate the cap on public spending, increase taxes on the wealthy, and strengthen conservation efforts in the Amazon.

What Do the Election Results Mean for Brazil’s Democracy?
Some experts say the close result on October 2—especially after public polling consistently showed lower support for Bolsonaro than he won in the vote—underscores Brazil’s sharp political polarization. (In public polling ahead of the second round, Lula has maintained a lead of between 3 and 6 percent.) Low voter turnout also signaled growing dissatisfaction: at 21 percent, it was the lowest since 1998.

Meanwhile, Bolsonaro’s conservative party outperformed in congressional elections, gaining at least seven additional seats and earning a majority. That could give Bolsonaro’s supporters momentum and make it more difficult for Lula to implement left-wing policies if elected. “The extreme right is very strong across Brazil,” Carlos Melo, a political science professor at the Insper Institute of Education and Research in São Paulo, told Reuters. “Lula’s second-round victory is now less likely.” 

Tensions could worsen around the runoff, after the first round saw worrying acts of political violence among supporters of both candidates, including several murders. Second-round campaigning was marked by a violent attack against police by one of Bolsonaro’s allies. Democracy watchdogs warn that disinformation is prevalent on social media, while Bolsonaro has questioned the integrity of the electoral process and made unsubstantiated claims of fraud in electronic voting machines. This has raised fears that, if he loses, Bolsonaro and his allies will not accept the result.

What’s at Stake for Brazil’s Role in the World?
Bolsonaro and Lula differ widely on foreign policy. Breaking with most of his predecessors, Bolsonaro has embraced anti-globalist rhetoric and blamed international institutions for jeopardizing Brazil’s sovereignty. He has distanced Brazil from the United Nations and threatened to withdraw from the World Health Organization and the Paris Agreement on climate. His administration has also sought to isolate former partners, namely Cuba and Venezuela, and form closer ties with like-minded leaders, such as former U.S. President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin. Bolsonaro has also disparaged China’s influence and feuded with U.S. President Joe Biden.

In contrast, Lula has pledged to return Brazil to its more traditional role as a supporter of regional multilateral institutions. His victory would add Brazil to the growing list of Latin American countries—including Chile and Colombia—that have chosen left-wing candidates in recent elections. Some observers say the result would likely be an increase in cooperation between Brazil and lower-income countries, often referred to as the Global South; warmer relations with the United States and European Union; and a rekindling of Brazil’s leadership role in regional affairs.

Diana Roy is Assistant Writer/Editor, Latin America, at CFR.This article is published courtesy of the Council on Foreign Relations (CFR).