BIOTHREATSA Growing Threat: Deliberate, Simultaneous Release of Pandemic Viruses Across Travel Hubs

Published 23 November 2022

COVID-19 demonstrated how the world is clearly vulnerable to the introduction of a single pandemic virus with a comparatively low case fatality rate. The deliberate and simultaneous release of many pandemic viruses across travel hubs could threaten the stability of civilization. Current trends suggest that within a decade, tens of thousands of skilled individuals will be able to access the information required for them single-handedly to cause new pandemics.

Pandemic-class agents are as deadly as nuclear weapons – but are far more accessible than nuclear materials.

The international community has gone to considerable lengths to prevent non-state actors from acquiring nuclear weapons. COVID-19 has demonstrated, however, that even relatively mild pandemic viruses can kill more people than any nuclear device. Pandemic-class agents would be strategically useless to nation-states due to their slow spread and indiscriminate lethality, but they might be acquired and deliberately released by terrorists.

COVID-19 demonstrated how the world is clearly vulnerable to the introduction of a single pandemic virus with a comparatively low case fatality rate. The deliberate and simultaneous release of many pandemic viruses across travel hubs could threaten the stability of civilization. Current trends suggest that within a decade, tens of thousands of skilled individuals will be able to access the information required for them single-handedly to cause new pandemics.

Kevin M. Esvelt, Polymath Fellow within the Global Fellowship Initiative of the Geneva Center for Security Policy (GCSP), Associate Professor at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology Media Lab, and a co-founder of SecureBio Inc. and the SecureDNA Foundation, writes in a new GCSP paper – Delay, Detect, Defend: Preparing for a Future in which Thousands Can Release New Pandemics – that safeguarding civilization from the catastrophic misuse of biotechnology requires delaying the development and misuse of pandemic-class agents while building systems capable of reliably detecting threats and preventing nearly all infections.

Here are three sections from Esvelt’s paper:

Executive Summary
The world is demonstrably vulnerable to the introduction of a single pandemic virus with a comparatively low case fatality rate. The deliberate and simultaneous release of many pandemic viruses across travel hubs could threaten the stability of civilisation. Current trends suggest that within a decade, tens of thousands of skilled individuals will be able to access the information required for them to single-handedly cause new pandemics. Safeguarding civilisation from the catastrophic misuse of biotechnology requires delaying the development and misuse of pandemic-class agents while building systems capable of reliably detecting threats and preventing nearly all infections.

Key Takeaways
 Background

·  We don’t yet know of any credible viruses that could cause new pandemics, but ongoing research projects aim to publicly identify them.

·  Identifying a sequenced virus as pandemic-capable will allow >1,000 individuals to assemble it.

·  One person with a list of such viruses could simultaneously ignite multiple pandemics.