Rise in Iranian Assassination Abroad | China’s Hamburg Terminal Acquisition | War in Ukraine’s Lesson for Western Armies, and more

Viktor Orban, Hungary’s prime minister, has been erasing the boundaries between the state and Fidesz ever since coming to power in 2010. He has used his two-thirds majority in parliament to overhaul the constitution and pack the courts with sympathetic judges. Friendly businessmen have taken over nearly all of the country’s media outlets and put most of them under the control of a foundation whose board is appointed by Fidesz members. Before elections, Mr. Orban routinely has the government’s information office stage “national consultations”: bogus surveys which ask every citizen biased questions, such as whether they support showing explicit sexual content to children, implying that the opposition does.
Abusing databases for campaign purposes, however, violates both EU and Hungarian laws on data privacy.

Will the U.N. Tax Convention Empower Africa?  (Nosmot Gbadamosi, Foreign Policy)
Global tax reforms resisted by richer nations could reduce reliance on tax havens and bring much-needed revenue to African governments.

Sanctions on Russia Are Working. Here’s Why.  (By Agathe Demarais, Foreign Policy)
The Kremlin’s ability to wage war is already constrained, but the worst is yet to come.

What Jiang Zemin’s Death Means for the CCP  (James Palmer, Foreign Policy)
The former leader’s mourning period creates an opportunity for public gathering—and political plotting.

Cosco’s Hamburg Terminal Acquisition: Lessons for Europe  (Francesca Ghiretti and Jacob Gunter, War on the Rocks)
Europe is waking up to the dangers of overreliance on authoritarian powers, but largely lacks the toolkit necessary to mitigate dependencies on the very regimes most willing to exploit them. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and subsequent weaponization of Europe’s energy dependency on Moscow has hit every corner of the continent’s economy. Meanwhile, Xi Jinping has a track record of imposing economic coercion in response to slights against Beijing. While the discussion of these risks has advanced, the policy framework and how it is used to respond to such dependencies needs urgent change. Europe may be rapidly adapting after the fact to Russia’s coercive use of its control over European critical infrastructure and the oil and natural gas that flow through it, but the opposite has happened regarding China’s increasing role in European ports and the shipping services that flow through them. 
Most recently, this involved China’s massive state-owned shipping company COSCO seeking a 35 percent share in the Tollerort Terminal at the Port of Hamburg. After months of debate, the German government approved an amended investment which, if COSCO accepts the counteroffer, will lead to 24.9 percent ownership. 
Absent other factors, this decision does not present an immediate risk to German or European security, but when contextualized with broader trends, it adds to growing medium to long-term risks for Berlin, and for the European Union more broadly. The impacts on the common market stem from Berlin being only the most recent of a long trend of member state governments to allow China’s state-owned COSCO to exploit market advantages to capture market share in the European Union. Importantly, the decision also comes in the context of different times — not only has Beijing changed, but so have its ties with Moscow. Furthermore, this is the first major investment to take place after the establishment of an E.U.-level investment screening mechanism.  

Viktor Orbán’s Controversial ‘Greater Hungary’ Scarf Explained  (Michael Toomey, The Conversation)
A recent football match between Hungary and Greece – two countries that didn’t even qualify for the World Cup – would have been quickly forgotten were it not for the sartorial choices made by one of the spectators. Hungarian prime minister Viktor Orbán was in attendance, sporting a scarf with a provocative design that has triggered tensions with other world leaders.
The scarf depicted a map of Hungary but with the borders it had before the 1920 Treaty of Trianon, the peace agreement that ended the first world war. As part of this agreement, Hungary ceded land to neighbors Austria, Croatia, Romania, Serbia, Slovakia and Ukraine.
In modern times, the image of Hungary with its pre-Trianon borders intact has been mobilized by right-wing Hungarian nationalists and named “Greater Hungary”. Subscribers to this “irredentist” ideology (advocating restoration of territory) believe Hungary should reclaim the land it feels was wrongfully taken via Trianon.
Understandably, given this history, Orbán’s scarf was swiftly condemned by Romania, Slovakia, and Ukraine.

China’s ‘White Paper’ Protest Movement Echoes Freedom Struggles Across Asia and the World  (Gareth Dale, The Conversation)
If there was a single trigger for the “white paper” uprising that has been sweeping China over the past few days, it was events in Ürümchi, the capital of Xinjiang province. Xinjiang’s lockdown has been the most severe in China, with many residents unable to leave their homes for nearly four months. When ten or more residents, mostly Uyghur Muslims, were barred from escaping a blaze, their apartment block became a death trap. The doors, it is said, had been externally bolted.
Within hours, rallies and candlelit vigils for the Ürümchi victims were held in cities across China. To evade censure, protesters developed creative techniques involving irony and strategic ambiguity.